Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute

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Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
La Revue de l’Institut | The Graduate Institute Review #23 Printemps | Spring 2019

GLOBE
                                                  L’INSTIT U T

                                                  Un banquier au
                                                  service de la Genève
                                                  internationale

                                                  DOSSIER

                                                  Conflict and Violence
                                                  in the 21st Century
Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
La Revue de l’Institut | The Graduate Institute Review #23 Printemps | Spring 2019

                                                                                          ÉDITORIAL
                                                                                      2   Un monde préoccupant – Philippe Burrin

                                                                                          L’INSTITUT
                                                                                      3   Beatrice Weder di Mauro: A New Professor of International Economics
                                                                                      4   Ivan Pictet: un banquier au service de la Genève internationale
                                                                                      6   Columbia University Team Wins 2018 Geneva Challenge on Climate Change

                                                                                          THE GENEVA CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL DISPUTE
                                                                                          SETTLEMENT (CIDS)
                                                                                      7   Preparing Students for the Real World – Interview with Laurence Boisson
                                                                                          de Chazournes and Thomas Schultz

                                                                                          L’ACTUALITÉ
                                                                                      8   « Les cols blancs passeront à la trappe » – Richard Baldwin
                                                                                     10   Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learnt? – Cédric Tille
                                                                                     11   Brexit: From Bad to Worse – Cédric Dupont

                                                                                          LE DOSSIER – Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century
                                                                                     14   On (Political) Violence – Keith Krause
                                                                                     16   What Is Really New about the New Wars?
                                                                                          Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou
                                                                                     18   Sexual Violence: A New Weapon of War? – Elisabeth Prügl
                                                                                     20   Humanitarians as Targets of Violence? – Gilles Carbonnier
                                                                                     22   The Morphology of Urban Conflict – Ravi Bhavnani and Mirko Reul
                                                                                     24   The Fog of Crime: Gang Transformation and the Unpredictability of Violence
                                                                                          in Central America – Dennis Rodgers

                                                                                          LES PROFESSEURS
                                                                                     26   Professor Susanna Hecht Awarded the David Livingstone Centenary Medal
                                                                                     27   Contributing to a Healthier World – Ilona Kickbusch
                                                                                     28   When Teaching Is a Privilege – Anna Leander

                                                                                          LES ÉTUDIANTS
                                                                                     30   Supporting Talented Students from around the World
                                                                                     32   Regulating Social Media in Democracies
                                                                                     33   Changer le monde ? – Flora Demaegdt (Leturcq)
                                                                                     34   Vulgariser les connaissances pour servir le débat citoyen

                                                                                          LES ALUMNI
                                                                                     35   Portrait – Apolline Pierson
Éditeur : Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
CP 1672 – CH-1211 Genève 1 | Tél. : +41 22 908 57 00 | graduateinstitute.ch               LE TÉMOIGNAGE
Responsable d’édition : Sophie Fleury, sophie.fleury @ graduateinstitute.ch          36   Le genre, une catégorie non seulement utile mais nécessaire
Crédit photographique :                                                                   Entretien avec Christine Verschuur
Couverture : A man holding an infant stands on the balcony of a damaged house,
after curfew ended in the southeastern Turkish town of Silopi on 19 January 2016.
                                                                                          LA RECHERCHE
Turkey has with military operations backed by curfews aimed at flushing out rebels
from several southeastern urban centres. Ilyas AKENGIN/AFP                           37   Nouvelles publications
Impression : Imprimerie Nationale
© The Graduate Institute, Geneva, April 2019 | ISSN : 1662-8497
Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
ÉDITORIAL

Un monde préoccupant
Philippe Burrin
Directeur de l’Institut

                                                                                                                                                           L’INSTITUT

                                                                                                                                                           A New Professor
                          L   ’état du monde est préoccupant. On l’entend, on le lit,
                              on le pense soi-même. On ne s’étonne pas que des
                                                                                         élevé d’ouverture, d’échange, d’intégration. Des institu-
                                                                                         tions internationales seront contournées ou sommées de
                                                                                                                                                           of International Economics
                          États restent en marge du système international ou en          se réformer, d’autres naîtront ou se développeront. Sous          BEATRICE WEDER DI MAURO (Switzerland and Italy)
                          minent les principes par leur action. Mais on s’inquiète de    une forme ou une autre, des enceintes de négociation et           PhD, University of Basel
                                      voir la puissance qui a défendu et promu, au       des instruments de mise en œuvre de politiques interna-
                                      lendemain de la Seconde Guerre mondiale, un        tionales seront indispensables. La conscience de leur uti-
                                      système multilatéral ramifié mettre en cause       lité grandira au fur et à mesure que seront pris au sérieux
                                      certaines de ses institutions et peut-être l’es-   les défis que la planète doit affronter.
                                      prit de la coopération internationale.

                                          Cela se produit alors que les tensions géo-
                                                                                              L’Institut est bien placé pour répondre aux jeunes gens
                                                                                         en quête de formation et aux professionnels voulant se
                                                                                                                                                           B    eatrice Weder di Mauro joined the Institute in January.
                                                                                                                                                                She is President of the Centre for Economic Policy
                                                                                                                                                           Research (CEPR), a leading network of more than 1,300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            What shaped your interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            in macroeconomics?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 My interest in international macroeconomics and finan-
                                     politiques reprennent de la vigueur, notam-         perfectionner dans tout ce qui est global et international.       top economists mostly based in Europe. CEPR promotes             cial crises was mainly shaped by my experience working at
                                     ment en Asie orientale, dans l’immense cein-        Il est tout aussi bien placé pour fournir un savoir et une        research excellence with policy relevance and has had a          the International Monetary Fund in the aftermath of the
                                     ture qui va de l’Afrique du Nord au Pakistan,       expertise dont les acteurs internationaux voient chaque           long standing and deep relationship with the Graduate            collapse of the Soviet Union. I was the economist for
                                     sur la frontière du monde russe et de l’Europe.     jour davantage la nécessité. Sa place sera d’autant plus          Institute: Professor Richard Baldwin was its previous            Kyrgyzstan. Coming out of a fully centrally planned econ-
                                     Tandis qu’ont le vent en poupe nationalismes        forte, à vrai dire, s’il sait encore mieux se profiler dans une   President and continues to serve as Editor-in-Chief of its       omy, the entire monetary and fiscal system had to be re-de-
                          et populismes, éperonnés qu’ils sont par le changement         gouvernance mondiale où la mise en réseau et en synergie          leading dissemination platform VoxEU.org, Professor              signed. In many cases, transition economies went straight
                          technologique et les disparités démographiques entre           des trois types d’acteurs – publics, privés, à but non lucra-     Charles Wyplosz served as its Policy Director and now,           into a high-inflation crisis. I also have an interest in the
                          régions vieillissantes et régions en forte croissance          tif – requiert la compréhension de la logique de chacun et        Professor Ugo Panizza has become its Vice-President in           development, growth and governance of emerging markets,
                          démographique.                                                 le développement de leur collaboration.                           charge of New Ventures.                                          which was triggered by growing up in Guatemala.
                                                                                                                                                               Beatrice Weder di Mauro is also Research Professor
                              Et l’Institut dans ce monde préoccupant ? Son rôle et                                                                        and Distinguished Fellow at the Emerging Markets Institute       What have you been working on recently?
                          sa pertinence ne diminuent pas, ils deviennent plus impor-                                                                       of the Institut européen d’administration des affaires                I have several work streams but I will concentrate on
                          tants que jamais. La globalisation connaît une décéléra-                                                                         (INSEAD) in Singapore.                                           one about central banks and the risk in central bank bal-
                          tion, elle ne rebrousse pas chemin. Sauf conflit majeur, le                                                                                                                                       ance sheets, which is joint work with Barry Eichengreen
                          monde maintiendra dans un avenir prévisible un niveau                                                                            Why did you decide to join the Graduate                          from the University of California, Berkeley, Julian Schumacher
                                                                                                                                                           Institute?                                                       from the European Central Bank and Bernd Bartels from
                                                                                                                                                                The Graduate Institute is a perfect fit for my main areas   Scope. Central banks in advanced countries have expanded
                                                                                                                                                           of interest in my research and policy advice, international      their balance sheets very significantly in the course of com-
                                                                                                                                                           macroeconomics and development. It has an excellent rep-         batting the financial crisis. In particular, after the zero lower
                                                                                                                                                           utation in the international community and a deep relation-      bound, they have embarked on non-conventional policies
                                                                                                                                                           ship with CEPR because both institutions share the goal of       that involve buying securities, therefore expanding their
                                                                                                                                                           putting research excellence with policy relevance in the         balance sheets. They now find themselves in a situation
                                                                                                                                                           service of society, globally. Moreover, I have known and         that is quite unprecedented and that may lead to threats
                                                                                                                                                           respected the Graduate Institute for many years, have rec-       to their independence and consequences for monetary pol-
                                                                                                                                                           ommended some of my best students for programmes here            icy – and that is the general purpose of our research. More
                                                                                                                                                           and have always had a great appreciation for the excellent       specifically, we investigate what is driving the risk in cen-
                                                                                                                                                           faculty. I also love the spirit of cosmopolitanism at the        tral bank balance sheets and whether governance rules
                                                                                                                                                           Institute. It has already started to feel like home.             protect them from political interference.

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Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
L’INSTITUT

    Un banquier au service
    de la Genève internationale

    A    ncien associé senior de la Banque Pictet, Ivan Pictet
         préside la Fondation pour Genève, dont la mission est
    de contribuer au rayonnement de Genève comme centre de
                                                                      père a épousé une Suédoise, puis part un an à Stockholm
                                                                      après le collège Calvin avant d’étudier à l’Université de
                                                                      Saint-Gall – un parcours qui lui a fait voir sa ville de l’exté-
                                                                                                                                         Vue aérienne
                                                                                                                                         du Campus de
                                                                                                                                         la paix au cœur
                                                                                                                                                           pour Genève. Appelé au conseil d’administration du fonds
                                                                                                                                                           de pension de l’ONU, dont il sera le premier président non
                                                                                                                                                           américain, il assume bénévolement une charge qui lui vaut
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            espace d’exposition qui présente la Genève internationale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            dans son ensemble et fait voir le rôle indispensable qu’elle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            joue dans la gouvernance mondiale. La réalisation de ce pro-
                                                                                                                                         de la Genève
    coopération multilatérale. La fondation déploie une activité      rieur et lui a appris à l’apprécier pour ce qu’elle est : une      internationale.   une réunion par mois à New York et une conférence télé-          jet, qui se profile aujourd’hui sur un emplacement voisin de
    considérable pour renforcer la Genève internationale,             petite ville grandie par son rôle international ;                  Loïc MURIEL       phonique par semaine. Elle lui fait rencontrer Kofi Annan,       l’allée aux drapeaux du Palais des Nations, promet d’être le
    notamment en faisant valoir son importance auprès des                  > Une expérience de banquier où l’international, juste-                         alors secrétaire général des Nations Unies, pour lequel il       couronnement de son engagement au service de la Genève
                  Genevois et des Suisses (en régime de démo-         ment, a tenu une grande place. Alors que la plupart des                              développera un attachement profond. À Genève, il côtoie          internationale.
                  cratie semi-directe, l’opinion des citoyens         banquiers privés se concentrent sur les pays voisins, Ivan                           les acteurs de premier plan du système onusien, dont cer-              Comment voit-il l’avenir ? Genève lui paraît conserver
                  compte), en facilitant l’accueil des expatriés et   Pictet part dès les années 1980 « ouvrir » les marchés émer-                         tains l’impressionnent particulièrement, ainsi Sadako Ogata,     tous ses atouts : le cosmopolitisme, la taille critique des
                  leur rapprochement avec les résidents, et en        gents, ceux d’Asie en premier lieu, comme Hong Kong,                                 ancienne haut-commissaire des Nations Unies pour les réfu-       compétences, le cadre agréable et sûr. Les difficultés
                  favorisant le rassemblement des acteurs inter-      Singapour, et surtout le Japon où il se rend plus de 150 fois                        giés, Francis Gurry, directeur général de l’Organisation mon-    demeurent, cependant – la cherté de la vie, l’engorgement
                  nationaux au sein du Club diplomatique et du        – une orientation qui joue un rôle certain dans l’expansion                          diale de la propriété intellectuelle, Pascal Lamy, ancien        du territoire, l’endettement des finances publiques – alors
                  Cercle International.                               et le succès de sa banque ;                                                          directeur général de l’Organisation mondiale du commerce,        que d’autres montent à l’horizon : l’autoritarisme et le pro-
                      Donnant sans compter de son temps et de              > Enfin, un engagement au niveau local et national                              et Michael Møller, directeur général de l’Office des Nations     tectionnisme, avec leurs pesanteurs et leur fonctionnement
                  son argent à la cause de la Genève internatio-      dans la défense des intérêts économiques, notamment à la                             Unies à Genève.                                                  en silo, sont des défis que les institutions internationales
                  nale, Ivan Pictet en est devenu au fil des          Chambre de commerce de Genève et à Genève place finan-                                    En 2008, Ivan Pictet affecte une partie de sa fortune à     doivent se préparer à relever. Mais Ivan Pictet a trop d’ex-
                  années une figure centrale. Comment expliquer       cière, deux organisations qu’il présidera pendant des années                         l’activité philanthropique. Intéressé par le développement       périence et de hauteur de vue pour ne pas garder confiance :
    cet engagement remarquable ? Du regard rétrospectif qu’il         et qui lui font voir l’importance économique de la Genève                            de l’Institut, il donne à la fondation qu’il crée alors – la     la planète aura besoin d’un effort continu de concertation,
    jette sur sa trajectoire, trois éléments se dégagent :            internationale et comprendre combien le sort de la ville                             Fondation Pictet pour le développement – une double mis-         et la Genève internationale garde toute son importance.
         > Une enfance cosmopolite qui le marque davantage            dépend du riche tissu d’acteurs internationaux présents sur                          sion dont les deux composantes ont partie liée avec sa pas-
    qu’une histoire familiale étroitement liée à la vie de la cité    la côte lémanique.                                                                   sion pour la Genève internationale. La première consiste à                                             PHILIPPE BURRIN
    (aucune famille n’a donné autant de magistrats). Le jeune              À partir de la fin des années 1990, ce « déraciné gene-                         soutenir la création par l’Institut du Centre finance et déve-                                         Directeur
    Ivan, lui, passe une partie de son enfance à Londres avec sa      vois », selon ses termes, s’engage dans la défense et l’illus-                       loppement et à financer ses trois chaires. La seconde est de
    mère remariée à un Britannique, revient à Genève où son           tration de la Genève internationale au sein de la Fondation                          permettre la construction d’un Portail des nations, un

4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5
Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
L’INSTITUT

Columbia University Team
Wins 2018 Geneva Challenge
on Climate Change

                                                                                                                                                      THE GENEVA CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL DISPUTE SETTLEMENT (CIDS)

                                                                                                                                                      Preparing Students for the Real World
                                                                                                                                                      Interview with Laurence Boisson de Chazournes
                                                                                                                                                      Director of the LLM in International Dispute Settlement (MIDS), a joint programme with the University of Geneva
                                                                                                                                                      and Thomas Schultz
                                                                                                                                                      Director of Research at the Geneva Center for International Dispute Settlement (CIDS), a joint centre with the University of Geneva

                                                                                                                                                      As of September 2018, you were appointed                                The main plan for MIDS – whose 10th anniversary we            Villa Moynier,
                                                                                                                                                      Co-directors of CIDS following Gabrielle                            celebrated last autumn – is to keep ensuring the pro-             headquarters of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            CIDS and MIDS.
                                                                                                                                                      Kaufmann-Kohler’s retirement. What are                              gramme’s student diversity, its disciplinary orientation cov-
                                                                                                                                                      the biggest challenges facing international                         ering both public and private aspects of international law
                                                                                                                                                      dispute settlement?                                                 and its overall professional aims. Perhaps we will push stu-
                                                                                                                                                          LBC. The world isn’t exactly at peace. International            dents to be a bit more curious about some of the things that
                                                                                                                                                      disputes haven’t decreased and are unlikely to. Yet the             aren’t quite right in the different systems they study – they
The winning team
of the Geneva
Challenge with
                     T   he Geneva Challenge was launched in 2014 under the
                         patronage of the late Kofi Annan and with the gener-
                     ous support of Swiss Ambassador Jenö Staehelin. This
                                                                                      showcase their top-tier skills in future editions of the com-
                                                                                      petition”, said Alonso Flores, member of the Columbia
                                                                                      University team, currently pursuing his Master in Public
                                                                                                                                                      global demand for rule of law, for justice, for predictability
                                                                                                                                                                                       is steadily becoming more
                                                                                                                                                                                       insistent. We need ever
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          must be prepared for the real world, where real challenges
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          could shape the future of the profession.
Ambassador
Jenö Staehelin       contest aims to present innovative and pragmatic solutions       Administration with a concentration in Economic and                                              more, and ever better,                  TS. CIDS research covers three areas: aca-
during the Award     to address the main challenges of today’s world.                 Political Development.                                                                           international dispute set-         demic research, outreach and continuing edu-
Ceremony at              The theme of the 2018 contest was to explore how chal-            Other laureates included the teams from BRAC                                                tlement mechanisms to              cation. Overall, we take a broad understanding
Maison de la paix.
Éric ROSET           lenges posed by climate change could be tackled to foster        University and ETH Zürich, which were each awarded sec-                                          make the world a better,           of dispute settlement and engage in interdisci-
                     social and economic development. Out of 66 project entries       ond prize ex aequo, and the teams from Kenyatta University                                       safer and more just place.         plinary projects. Our field is best not seen as a
                     submitted by 259 students from teams hailing from all over       and the University of Buenos Aires, which were each                                                                                 silo cut off from its environment, concerned
                     the world, 15 teams were chosen as semi-finalists. The jury      awarded third prize ex aequo.                                                                       TS. While a wide                only with its own procedural mechanics. It is
                     then selected 5 finalist teams, one per continent (based on           A special prize was also attributed in partnership with                                    array of intricate and              embedded in social contexts, with which it has
                     the location of the university), who were invited to defend      the Sustainable Development Solutions Network – Youth                                           technical legal questions           relations of mutual influence.
                     their project at the Institute at the end of November.           (SDSN Youth) to the team from the University of Toronto         remain to be solved, my sense is that what international                 Our research will focus on the questions we believe
                         The 2018 winner was the team from Columbia                   for its project “Enhanced Sustainable Concrete: Combining       dispute settlement needs most today is to be reconnected            are the most intellectually pregnant, the ones that may
                     University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA)   Existing Technologies in a Novel Manner to Promote the          to its broader underlying economic, political, and societal         influence the thinking most. With outreach we interact
                     with their project “Data Analytics for Sustainable Herding       Sustainable Development of Water and Concrete Industries        implications – to be put into context. CIDS research will           with society: public conferences, a named lecture series,
                     (DASH)”. “DASH will disrupt the traditional approach to          Worldwide”.                                                     work on both of these strands.                                      contributions to law reforms, interactions with NGOs and
                     international development and public policymaking by                  The prizes were given out by Nane Annan, the wife of                                                                           the arbitration industry, and efforts to inform and help
                     unpacking the complexity of the modern-day herding, farm-        the late Kofi Annan.                                            What are the main plans for MIDS and CIDS                           resolve practical problems. We envisage podcasts, vlogs
                     ing, and land-use nexus”, said the team. “DASH aims to                In his congratulatory speech, Jenö Staehelin announced     research?                                                           and a public paper series. Our continuing education
                     create a blueprint for utilising big data and applying machine   the theme for the sixth edition of the Geneva Challenge:            LBC. International dispute settlement, as a field of            includes a PhD seminar series, a summer school and vari-
                     learning and artificial intelligence for better decision-        the “Challenges of Health”. He stated that “many more           legal practice, keeps growing at a rapid pace. As a result,         ous short programmes for professionals working in law
                     making under deep uncertainty.”                                  efforts are needed to fully eradicate a wide range of dis-      educational programmes are sprouting all over the world.            firms and in policymaking.
                         “We are extremely happy to bring back the first prize        eases and address many different, persistent and emerging       Today we have every intention of staying among the lead-
                     this year and strongly recommend SIPA students to                health issues”.                                                 ers of these developments.

6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             7
Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
Rafael HARO,   Est-ce cela, le nouveau palier de la                            Royaume-Uni, qui a voté en faveur du Brexit, donnent l’im-
                                                                                                                                         2016           mondialisation ?                                                pression d’un recul de la mondialisation. C’est entièrement
                                                                                                                                                             La chaîne de production automatisée, numérisée et          faux. Tous les autres acteurs de la planète poursuivent une
                                                                                                                                                        transfrontalière a donné lieu à un boom des échanges            politique de libéralisation. Après le retrait des États-Unis
                                                                                                                                                        internationaux et contribué à augmenter le niveau de vie        du Partenariat transpacifique (TPP), les autres acteurs
                                                                                                                                                        de millions de personnes. Notamment en Chine, où des            n’ont pas abandonné le projet ; au contraire, ils ont accé-
                                                                                                                                                        millions de travailleurs disciplinés, semi-formés, enthou-      léré le mouvement.
                                                                                                                                                        siastes et surtout compétitifs ont trouvé un emploi.
                                                                                                                                                        Aujourd’hui, les entreprises chinoises vont produire en         Les détracteurs de la mondialisation n’ont-ils
                                                                                                                                                        Éthiopie et dans d’autres pays africains. La hausse de la       rien compris ?
                                                                                                                                                        production a créé un plus grand besoin en matières pre-             Tout s’est plutôt bien passé dans les années 1990.
                                                                                                                                                        mières, de quoi tirer vers le haut de nombreux pays en          Mais depuis une vingtaine d’années, on voit l’émergence
                                                                                                                                                        Asie, en Afrique et en Amérique du Sud.                         des inégalités, l’effondrement de la classe moyenne, des
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        licenciements. En France, les « gilets jaunes » ne sont pas
    L’ACTUALITÉ                                                                                                                                         Et maintenant ?                                                 un mouvement contre la mondialisation, mais l’histoire col-

    « Les cols blancs passeront                                                                                                                             Ce phénomène touche désormais les services qui
                                                                                                                                                        comptent de plus en plus dans la richesse mondiale. Dans
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        lective de personnes qui ont toutes des raisons indivi-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        duelles pour se mettre en colère. La situation aujourd’hui

    à la trappe »                                                                                                                                       le domaine de l’information par exemple, le Washington
                                                                                                                                                        Post et Le Monde publient déjà des informations générées
                                                                                                                                                        par ordinateur. Conseils juridiques, rédaction, vérification,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        est clairement combustible. Elle va s’aggraver lorsque les
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        travailleurs seront encore plus en compétition avec des
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        robots. On peut anticiper la perte de millions de places de
                                                                                                                                                        traduction des contrats, consultation médicale, plans d’ar-     travail. Les grands changements ne se passent jamais en
    Richard Baldwin, professeur d’économie internationale, est l’auteur de                                                                              chitecture sont réalisés à distance. La traduction automa-      douceur.
    The Globotics Upheaval : Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work,                                                                           tique et simultanée qui se fait avec des programmes de
    paru en janvier 2019. Il annonce un grand chambardement dans le secteur                                                                             plus en plus performants ouvre de grandes perspectives.         Et l’avenir, donc ?
    des services suite à la robotisation, la numérisation et la mondialisation                                                                          La digitalisation et la mondialisation ont donné lieu à la           Imaginez un peu toutes les tâches que les « télé­
    dans ce domaine (voir aussi p. 37).                                                                                                                 création de plateformes comme Upwork. Avec une pré-             migrants » peuvent accomplir. Dès lors il faudra de l’ingé-
                                                                                                                                                        sence dans une centaine de pays, ce fournisseur de ser-         niosité humaine pour créer de nouveaux emplois pour ceux
                                                                                                                                                        vices brasse 2 milliards de dollars par an. Je ne parle pas     qui seront sacrifiés. Il s’agira alors de penser à tout ce que
                                                                                                                                                        du travail à domicile, qui est lui-même une révolution, mais    les robots ne pourront jamais faire, par exemple dans les
                  The Globotics Upheaval apparaît                     Vous faites penser à Jeremy Rifkin                                                d’une armée mondiale de « télémigrants » compétents et          domaines de la créativité, des relations humaines, de
                  comme un suivi naturel de votre                     qui a publié The End of Work en 1995.                                             compétitifs capables de fournir des services à l’appel.         l’innovation, de l’éthique, de l’empathie, de services à la
                  précédent ouvrage, The Great                        Allez-vous dans le même sens ?                                                    Cette fois-ci, ce sont les cols blancs qui passeront à la       communauté. À la fin, il est tout à fait envisageable de
                  Convergence. Quel est votre                              Le sociologue américain a décrit la révolution dans le                       trappe. Pour la première fois, ils rejoindront des cols bleus   construire une société plus riche et plus bienveillante. Le
                  message ici ?                                       monde du travail au fil des époques. Au XIX e siècle, la                          qui ont vu leur emploi partir en Asie ou en Europe de l’Est.    problème concerne les années de chambardement, d’où le
                      Dans le dernier chapitre de The Great           Révolution industrielle était liée au textile, à l’acier. À par-                  Je dois tout de suite ajouter que cela ne suffira pas d’ar-     titre de mon livre. Je suis pessimiste pour le court terme,
                  Convergence, j’évoquais le rôle de la numéri-       tir de 1870, les usines ont commencé à fabriquer des                              rêter le train de la mondialisation.                            mais optimiste pour le long terme.
                  sation et de l’automatisation dans le domaine       moteurs, des médicaments et surtout des machines.
                  des services à l’intérieur d’un pays. Jusqu’à       Désormais, nous sommes dans un monde où, grâce aux                                Mais ce train n’est-il pas en perte de vitesse ?                    Cet entretien a été publié dans Le Temps du 4 février 2019.
                  récemment, ces deux phénomènes n’étaient            technologies de la communication et de l’information, la                          On parle de slowbalisation…                                                               Propos recueillis par Ram Etwareea.
    pas tellement mondialisés. À travers mes recherches, j’ai         chaîne de production est automatisée, transfrontalière et                              En effet, depuis quelques années, les investissements
    découvert que cela était en train de changer et avait le          maîtrisée à distance. Ce phénomène est exacerbé par la                            baissent. Le commerce international ralentit. Oui, la slow-
    potentiel de modifier totalement le futur du travail. J’en ai     mondialisation. Pour ma part, je parle de services qui                            balisation est indéniable. Mais c’est un phénomène natu-
    discuté avec beaucoup de monde, et mes interlocuteurs,            peuvent être automatisés et dont la délocalisation ne pose                        rel. On aurait tort de le transformer en un synonyme de
    qu’ils soient chauffeur de taxi, directeur d’entreprise ou res-   aucun problème.                                                                   démondialisation. Cette image est fausse. Nous ne
    ponsable politique, n’ont pas mesuré l’ampleur du cham-                                                                                             sommes pas dans les années 1930, lorsque la Grande
    bardement à venir. Ce livre devrait sonner comme un                                                                                                 Dépression avait paralysé le monde. Il est vrai que les
    avertissement.                                                                                                                                      États-Unis, qui prônent un certain protectionnisme, et le

8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    9
Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
L’ACTUALITÉ

                        L’ACTUALITÉ                                                                                                                        Brexit: From Bad to Worse
                        Ten Years after the Financial Crisis:                                                                                              Cédric Dupont

                        What Have We Learnt?                                                                                                               Professor of International Relations/Political Science
                                                                                                                                                           Director of Executive Education

                        Cédric Tille
                        Professor of International Economics

                                                                                                                                                           D     ivorces often turn sour and Brexit – the withdrawal
                                                                                                                                                                 of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union
                                                                                                                                                           (EU) – is, unfortunately, a case in point. Initiated by a ref-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Flawed Negotiation Setup
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Europeans also share their responsibility for the current
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            impasse: they imposed a negotiation process in two phases.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Big Ben and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                the Houses of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Parliament on
SWITZERLAND,
Bern. Professor
Cédric Tille gave
                        A     cademics and policymakers have learnt several insights
                              from the crisis. Interestingly, many of these are re-
                        discovery of issues that were understood but had been
                                                                                              Financial stability matters. “Micro” measures at the
                                                                                         level of individual banks and investors need to be accom-
                                                                                         panied by “macro” policies looking at the entire system.
                                                                                                                                                           erendum that was an electoral promise of the British
                                                                                                                                                           Conservative Party to address an enduring internal division
                                                                                                                                                           within its ranks, three years later, Brexit has become the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The first phase focused on key principles of the withdrawal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            and the second on the future relationship. The flaw came
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            with the choice to include, as a matter of principle, the absence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                the River Thames.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Robert INGELHART/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                iStock
a lecture on the
topic of this article   viewed as secondary.                                             This is challenging as the financial sector keeps evolving.       source of deeper and fiercer national divisions in Britain       of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Yet,
at the 14th Annual           Macroeconomic analysis needs to take account of             The global nature of many financial firms also requires some      and a major embarrassment and irritation in the EU. How          the status of the Irish border could not be settled
Alumni Reception.       financial markets. This was somewhat neglected before            coordination of efforts by policymakers.                          did this happen?                                                 without knowing what the future relationship
3 December 2018.
Éric ROSET              the crisis, but no longer. A rich and growing literature              Research has identified a global financial cycle (distinct                                                                    would look like. Prevented by design to discuss
                        includes financial markets in macroeconomic models.              from the business cycle) that reflects the varying appetite       Fantasyland Britain                                              that relationship, the two parties were thus forced
                             Fiscal policy is receiving renewed attention. While it      of investors for risk as well as policy in the world’s major           The British government has been living in a fantasyland,    to include in the withdrawal agreement the
                        was not central in the debate before 2007, we now                economies. Measuring this cycle and assessing its impact          raising unrealistic expectations and never deflating them        infamous backstop provision to seal off, if needed,
                        understand that its effects are quite heterogeneous. It is       on capital flows and financial conditions is the challenging      publicly. In January 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May laid       Ireland from the British mainland, infuriating
                        particularly effective in crisis times when private demand       object of an active body of research. The cycle may be so         out some firm points defining the characteristics of what        British Unionists. Pragmatism should have
                        is constrained. Research has developed measures of “fiscal       strong that a flexible exchange rate may not shield countries     would be a good negotiation withdrawal agreement for the         prevailed over a rigid, misplaced, principle.
                        space” to identify which countries can use this policy.          from it – although this is debated. New tools are required        UK: the country would seize back control over immigration
                             Central banks can rely on a range of tools even when        to prevent swings in capital flows from fueling asset price       and trade policy; they would be out of the single market         The Reign of Confrontational Politics
                        the interest rate has been lowered all the way to zero:          bubbles. These include limits on what borrowers can do,           but still enjoy it short of having to adopt EU regulatory             With one party living in a fantasyland and the other
                        issuing large amounts of money, communicating on future          and restriction on what lenders can do.                           instruments or be in conformity with them. No one with           rigidly committed to key principles, confrontation and
                        policy, purchasing risky assets. These tools may have to be           We now have a better understanding of how financial          some essential understanding of what economic integration        posturing reigned during the international negotiation
                        used quite regularly in the future. Interest rates have been     conditions affect the economy. Substantial efforts have           means and how the EU functions should have been fooled           process. Confrontation also characterised domestic
                        low for a long time, and this reflects deep forces, such as      been undertaken to make banks more resilient, but we’ll           by such a plan but the large majority of the UK’s domestic       discussions in Britain: in a political system that serves a
                        the high demand for “safe” assets that keep their value          only know in the next recession whether this was enough.          audience lacks such understanding and has indeed been            two-party autocracy, the government sought, foremost, to
                        even during major crises. The world economy faces an             The world economy could soon enter a weak phase, leaving          fooled. When time came for a reality check (enjoying the         keep its own camp united with little or no effort to build
                        imbalance between a high demand for such assets and              policymakers faced with substantial challenges in responding      single market means regulatory and trade policy constraints),    bridges with the other camp.
                        limited supply. Interest rates will likely remain persistently   as interest rates are still low and the room for fiscal policy    the government did not dare to deflate expectations nor               All in all, there was little, if any, give and take in the
                        low, raising many questions, such as how pension funds           limited.                                                          adapt its behaviour to avoid losing face and the confidence      process, ending in an excruciating ratification process in
                        should respond.                                                                                                                    of the public.                                                   Britain.

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Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
Dossier produced in collaboration with the Centre on Conflict, Development and Peacebuilding
and based on Global Challenges (no. 5, 2019), the Graduate Institute’s series of research dossiers.
> http://globalchallenges.ch

                                                                                                      DOSSIER

                                                                                                      CONFLICT AND
                                                                                                      VIOLENCE IN
                                                                                                      THE 21st CENTURY

Women wearing full-face veils (niqabs) walk with children alongside others said to be
members of the Islamic State (IS) group by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF), exiting from the village of Baghouz in the eastern Syrian province of Deir Ezzor.
14 March 2019. Delil SOULEIMAN/AFP

12                                                                                                                   13
Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
“Most contemporary
                                                                                                                                                         This compartmentalisation hinders our
                                                                                                                                                         understanding of the way seemingly

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     lethal violence
                                                                                                                                                         different forms of violence may be
                                                                                                                                                         linked through complex processes

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     does not occur
                                                                                                                                                         that escalate and exacerbate conflicts,
                                                                                                                                                         and that may have broader impacts

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     in conflict zones.”
                                                                                                                                                         on human security, political and social
                                                                                                                                                         life, state fragility, and regional order.
                                                                                                                                                         Sexual violence in (and after) conflicts,
                                                                                                                                                         for example, is related to other forms
                                                                                                                                                         of violence, and this relationship is
                                                                                                                                                         not one-way, with war causing high-
                                                                                                                                                         er levels of sexual and gender-based
                                                                                                                                                         violence. There are deeper processes
                                                                                                                                                         at work, as states with lower levels of      can be identified and categorised by        can escalate and spread to large-scale
                                                                                                                                                         gender equality and higher levels of         focusing on the degree and scale of         political uprisings and even civil war
                                                                                                                                                         gender-based violence are more likely        organisation of the violent actors,         or transnational terrorism.
                                                                                                                                                         to be involved in interstate conflicts       the meaning and motivations or pur-            Violence prevention and reduction
                                                                                                                                                         or to initiate the use of force, and are     pose of the acts, or the nature of the      is at the heart of the Sustainable De-
                     CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21st CENTURY                                                                                           less likely to comply with international     act itself. None of these criteria by       velopment Goals. If the international
                                                                                                                                                         norms. Likewise, the rituals, organisa-      themselves are sufficient, however,         community is to successfully tackle

                     ON (POLITICAL) VIOLENCE                                                                                                             tional forms, and modes of action of
                                                                                                                                                         some South American gangs would
                                                                                                                                                         resonate with those of West African
                                                                                                                                                                                                      without clarifying what we mean
                                                                                                                                                                                                      by “violence” and “political”. From a
                                                                                                                                                                                                      holistic perspective, defining political
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  conflict and political violence in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  21st century, however, it will have to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  go beyond categories such as war, ter-
                     Keith Krause                                                                                                                        warlords, for instance.                      violence as violence used for explicitly    rorism, gang violence, and homicide
                     Professor of International Relations/Political Science                                                                                 The second limitation is to draw a        stated political ends, or violence that     to address the wide range of sources,
                     Head of the International Relations/Political Science Department                                                                    sharp distinction between political          undermines and challenges the state’s       causes, and consequences of violence.
                                                                                                                                                         and non-political (criminal, interper-       legal monopoly over the legitimate use      Many of these causes, such as weak
                                                                                                                                                         sonal, economically motivated) vio-          of force, or violence that implicates the   institutions, gender inequality, gov-
                                                                                                                                                         lence. This narrowly criminological          state and its repressive apparatus,         ernance failure or state corruption,
                                                                                                                                                         or legalistic perspective, which labels      may be essential for gaining insight        are intensely political, have national
MEXICO, Monterrey.
Members of the
Ministerial Police
                     A     seemingly bewildering array of
                           forms of violence confronts us in
                     the 21st century. Large-scale gang
                                                                     To begin: most contemporary le-
                                                                 thal violence does not occur in con-
                                                                 flict zones, but in states that are not
                                                                                                               is organised, non-random, and in some
                                                                                                               sense political. This contrasts sharply
                                                                                                               with the 20th century and its 60–80
                                                                                                                                                         all non-conflict deaths as “homicides”,
                                                                                                                                                         is misleading. Homicide conjures up
                                                                                                                                                         a form of interpersonal violence that
                                                                                                                                                                                                      into the causes and consequences of,
                                                                                                                                                                                                      and framing appropriate responses to,
                                                                                                                                                                                                      war and political violence in the 21st
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  and international implications, are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  interlinked, and demand a holistic ap-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  proach to understanding and action.
work at a crime
scene where five     warfare in Central America, Western         at war. Non-conflict settings such as         million deaths by war and roughly 100     is individual, unorganised, relatively       century.
taxi drivers were    interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq,      El Salvador, Venezuela, and Honduras          million deaths by “state violence”.       random, and essentially apolitical (and         The third limitation that must be
killed by gunmen     hybrid warfare in eastern Ukraine,          have higher levels of deadly violence            How should we try to understand        very rare in advanced industrialised         overcome is an undue focus on a pure-
at Solidarity City
neighbourhood,       terrorist attacks in Europe, civil war      than war zones (excepting Syria and           these diverse forms of violence? Three    states). This is an inadequate way           ly somatic understanding of violence
in a poor area of    in Syria, or armed militias in the          Iraq). According to the Small Arms            traditional limitations to the study of   to think about the more than 50,000          as the intentional use of physical force
Monterrey, Nuevo     Democratic Republic of the Congo – all      Survey’s Global Violent Deaths 2017           violence need first to be overcome.       violent deaths in cartel-related gang        to cause harm. Psychological violence,
Leon State.
                     seem to portray a world of ever-greater     report, 560,000 people died violently            The first limitation is the compart-   warfare in Mexico, or land-rights dis-       violence by deprivation, neglect or
21 February
2012. Julio Cesar    danger. Yet just how violent are            in 2016, but only about 100,000 (18%)         mentalisation of violence studies: in-    putes in Yemen that claimed several          omission, and such things as system-
AGUILAR/AFP          contemporary global politics, and how       were killed in war zones. Even if this        terstate and civil war and organised      thousand lives a year (and that have         ic, structural or symbolic violence are
                     – if at all – have armed conflict and       number is misleadingly low (because           armed actors are covered by interna-      now escalated into full-scale war).          also crucial to understanding how vio-
                     political violence changed since the        it omits the indirect but still lethal bur-   tional relations, gangs by sociology         The question “What makes vio-             lent acts – such as the repression and
                     end of the Cold War? Three facts will       den of war), it shows that war is only        or anthropology, organised crime by       lence political?” has no simple and          harassment by state officials of street
                     help us answer the first question; the      one piece of a larger puzzle of contem-       criminology, and sexual and gen-          unambiguous answer. Most scholar-            vendor Mohamed Bouazizi in a small
                     second is more complex.                     porary armed violence, much of which          der-based violence by gender studies.     ship assumes that political violence         city outside Tunis in December 2010 –

14                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15
Un banquier au service de la Genève internationale Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century - Graduate Institute
CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21st CENTURY

WHAT IS REALLY NEW
ABOUT THE NEW WARS?
Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou
Professor of International History
Head of the International History Department

                     I  n his history of newness (Novelty,
                        2013), Michael North remarks that
                     actual innovation only exists at the
                                                                multi-variant warfare, small wars,
                                                                low-intensity wars or wars of the third
                                                                kind had materialised, these did not
                                                                                                            which would have disappeared, but
                                                                                                            in the addition of previously absent
                                                                                                            layers and perspectives. These are
                     very crest of a wave. That is so, argues   amount to fundamental change. To be         visible in at least three key respects.
                     the UCLA professor, since innovation       certain, the age-old nature of war has           Firstly, there has been important
                     is dependent on its relative unfamili-     not been the object of variation; it        discontinuity in war introduced by
                     arity to a new audience. By that reck-     remains, as Carl von Clausewitz             unprecedented technological innova-
                     oning, the “new wars” are no longer        famously captured it in his 1832 work       tion, namely the magnitude of the
                     new. Close to thirty years later, that     On War, a political act carried through     information revolution and specifically
                     which could be seen to constitute a        the use of force to compel an enemy.        the densification and intensification
                     new generation of armed conflict in        Continuity in essence does not, how-        of interconnectedness. The coinci-
                     the early 1990s is today arguably passé.   ever, preclude alteration in form.          dence of globalisation with a reorder-
                                                                                                            ing of international affairs along those
                                                                                                            lines opened vast new possibilities of
                                                                                                            a faster and wider type of armed “com-

“Continuity in essence
                                                                                                            pelling force”, a type of violence ever
                                                                                                            projected under less and less predict-

does not, however, preclude
                                                                                                            able forms. This stood in stark contrast
                                                                                                            to here-and-now, classical army-on-        USA, New York,       and monopoly. The reality is that state    war”, to use Tarak Barkawi’s phrase,       next phase, we need to pay further
                                                                                                                                                       New York. The
alteration in form.”
                                                                                                            army clashes.                                                   actors have taken a back seat to the       spells intellectual recognition that the   attention to how war is now choreo-
                                                                                                                                                       setting sun is
                                                                                                                 Secondly, there has been a steady     reflected off One    development of war. Their response in      earlier conceptualisation of war was       graphed and staged ever confusingly
                                                                                                            movement away from the state’s cen-        World Trade Center   upgrading their technology towards         in effect excluding actors and modes       (social media themselves have become
                                                                                                            trality in war. Armed conflicts have       and the World        asymmetric threats (e.g., drone war-       of force projection organised differ-      a tool in modern warfare) and how
                                                                                                            long featured a multitude of other         Trade Center PATH    fare, cyberwarfare) is indeed evidence     ently than the post-Napoleonic             moments of war, rather than a linear
                                                                                                                                                       station at Ground
                                                                                                            actors, but in the modern era they had     Zero the night       of the fact that it was the non-state      European concert of nations.               temporal sequence, are more often
                     To understand the nature of the alleged        To North’s point, unfamiliarity was     been overwhelmingly dominated – fol-       before the 15th      actors who took them down the road              To historicise war is to document     the norm.
                     modulation in warfare is therefore to      palpably present in the early 1990s as      lowing Max Weber’s 1918 classical          anniversary of the   from battlefield to battlespace.           today the emergence, persistence and
                                                                                                                                                       11 September 2001
                     focus not merely on the idea of new-       the world haphazardly segued into the       definition – by single state entities      terrorist attacks.
                                                                                                                                                                                 Finally, above and beyond behav-      fleshing out of fluidity, open-ended-
                     ness but rather on the characteristics     post–Cold War era and as the archi-         enjoying the monopoly of legitimate        10 September         ioural aspects, the new wars are in        ness, de-statisation, privatisation,
                     of a historical moment, which marked       tecture of international affairs moved      violence and their soldiers endowed        2016. Brendan        and of themselves evidence that our        fragmentation and hybridity playing
                     a caesura from an older to a newer         away from bipolarity. Albeit in slow        with a licence to kill. The past thirty    SMIALOWSKI/AFP       academic gaze on war had long been         out from Bosnia to Yemen by way of
                     form of war.                               motion rather than spectacularly and        years have witnessed an ever-expand-                            scientifically incomplete and culturally   Mali and Ukraine. If sabotage has
                          The idea that war has changed has     in uniformity, new distinct trends in       ing cast of transnational armed groups                          skewed. To think of war in the same        always existed, malware and hacking
                     been opposed by several thinkers, such     the organisation and manifestation of       populating, in variegated ways and                              continuous mode is, in effect, to insist   are new kinds of weapons. If merce-
                     as Mats Berdal and J. David Singer. It     war did cement since, and we should         round the world, a new grammar of                               on the dominance of a single, classi-      naries have always been there,
                     was maintained, notably, that the          not therefore dogmatically shy away         autonomisation and privatisation of                             cal, major powers-driven, state-centric    Blackwater stepped up the game
                     evolving features of armed conflict do     from embracing the novelty they have        war. This, too, was a departure from                            tradition immune to the influence of       patrolling New Orleans and Baghdad
                     not amount to novelty per se, and that     given shape to. The novelty rests not       the previous generation of conflict dom-                        others – a perspective on global affairs   and contemplating full-fledged priva-
                     whatever complex emergencies,              in opposition to older forms of conflict,   inated by the dual trope of statehood                           akin to Eurocentrism. “Decolonising        tisation of the Afghanistan war. In the

16                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 17
Court in 2002. Moreover, in a series of     violence was rampant but did not              control in undisciplined armed groups.
                                                                                                                                                             resolutions since 2008, the UN Security     involve specific ethnic targeting, con-       More typically, armed groups provide
                                                                                                                                                             Council has condemned the practice          tradicting the idea that it was a stra-       a permissive environment. Indeed,
                                                                                                                                                             and sought measures to counteract it,       tegic instrument of genocide. One             research with perpetrators in the DRC
                                                                                                                                                             including the deployment of Women’s         explanation is that gang rapes there          shows them complaining that they
                                                                                                                                                             Protection Advisors in its peacekeeping     may have served as a means of social-         often go without pay and thus cannot
                                                                                                                                                             missions, the appointment of a Special      ising militia members. Indeed, there is       either buy sex or marry and therefore
                                                                                                                                                             Representative of the Secretary-General     evidence that such rapes are more com-        feel that rape is justified. Orders from
                                                                                                                                                             on Sexual Violence in Conflict, and the     mon in militias that forcibly recruit their   command play less of a role in this than
                                                                                                                                                             creation of UN Action, a programme to       members, often young boys. In con-            expectations of masculinity and a
                                                                                                                                                             prevent and respond to conflict-related     trast, sexual violence is less common         sense of male entitlement.
                                                                                                                                                             sexual violence. But there is concern       among leftist insurgents, as was the               Framing sexual violence as a
                                                                                                                                                             that the new visibility lent by this nor-   case in El Salvador and Peru; and             weapon of war is also problematic
                                                                                                                                                             mative framework to sexual violence         although there are documented cases           because it draws an artificial line
                                                                                                                                                             also has inadvertently normalised it as     of such violence in the Revolutionary         between such violence perpetrated in
                       CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21st CENTURY                                                                                             a standard weapon of war.                   Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC),              war and outside war. Against this,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       some feminists have argued that sex-

                       SEXUAL VIOLENCE:                                                                                                                                                                                                                ual violence itself needs to be consid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ered an act of political violence enabled
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       by patriarchal structures, institutions,

                       A NEW WEAPON OF WAR?                                                                                                                            “Empirical evidence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       and values. They worry that establish-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ing conflict-related sexual violence as

                                                                                                                                                                         contradicts the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       something qualitatively different from
                       Elisabeth Prügl                                                                                                                                                                                                                 sexual violence more broadly disre-

                                                                                                                                                                         common sense
                       Professor of International Relations/Political Science                                                                                                                                                                          gards the conditions that make it pos-
                       Director of the Gender Centre                                                                                                                                                                                                   sible. It is indeed difficult to think of

                                                                                                                                                                       that conflict-related
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       societies rent by sexual violence as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       peaceful. Conversely, definitions of

                                                                                                                                                                         sexual violence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       war based purely on battle deaths
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ignore the experiences of women, as

                                                                                                                                                                         is ubiquitous.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       sexual violence often continues long
SOUTH SUDAN,
Bentiu.
Peacekeepers
                       H       orrifying stories of sexual vio-
                               lence perpetrated in the context
                       of armed conflict have become ubiq-
                                                                     Yazidi women in Northern Iraq, and
                                                                     Rohingya women and girls fleeing the
                                                                     Myanmar military all seem to point to
                                                                                                                     Whether or not sexual violence is
                                                                                                                effective as a strategy of war, it has
                                                                                                                clear effects on its victims. The psycho-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       after the guns have been silenced.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Framing conflict-related sexual vio-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       lence as strategic and thus different
serving with the
United Nations         uitous. The issue first burst on the inter-   the new normality of such practices.       logical costs are immeasurable as it                                                                                                   from such violence outside armed con-
Mission (UNMISS)       national agenda with the rape camps           Increasing evidence shows that sexual      demolishes a basic sense of security;                                                                                                  flict problematically obscures that
conduct a patrol for   reported from Bosnia in the 1990s.            violence targets also men, and there       for men it often in addition puts in ques-        Yet, empirical evidence contradicts    these are far outstripped by the level        “peace” typically is built on a patriar-
women to safely
collect firewood in    Infamous reports of sexual exploitation       have been reports of significant levels    tion their masculinity. Costs to commu-      the common sense that conflict-related      of sexual violence perpetrated by the         chal bargain. The new visibility of sex-
the areas around       and abuse from UN peacekeepers                of such violence in the Democratic         nities include the destruction of trust      sexual violence is ubiquitous. Research     paramilitaries.                               ual violence may therefore lead us to
the Protection of      trailed these stories of systematic rape.     Republic of Congo (DRC), Syria, Sri        and social cohesion. Moreover, groups        shows that there are significant vari-           Framing sexual violence as a             begin to question the distinction
Civilians’ site.
10 December 2018.
                       Reliable statistics of the extent of such     Lanka, Peru, and Bosnia. Sexual vio-       that are selectively targeted may decide     ations in its prevalence and is begin-      weapon of war has served to mobilise          between war and peace and recognise
Isaac BILLY/           violence and abuse are difficult to           lence against men differs in form (e.g.    to leave an area rather than risk becom-     ning to discern some patterns. Some         governments and the UN but it is also         the pervasive harm done to populations
UN Photo               establish. However, neither issue has         it includes castration in addition to      ing the victims of violations.               suggest that sexual violence may be         problematic because it assumes that           gendered “other” in the wars that con-
                       gone away, and there is a sense that          rape, forced prostitution and other vio-        International policies affirm the       more common in ethnic conflicts such        warring groups obey a hierarchy of            stitute their everyday lives.
                       sexual violence in conflict has become        lations women experience), and it is       weapon-of-war character of sexual vio-       as that in the former Yugoslavia, where     command where soldiers follow orders
                       a standard repertoire of warfare.             more often perpetrated in situations       lence. It was recognised as a war crime      it supported a genocidal agenda.            to rape. Studies show that this is not
                       Sexual violence against women and             of detention (such as for example at       and a crime against humanity in the          However, in other ethnic conflicts, such    always the case, and there are consid-
                       girls in Yemen, South Sudan, and Iraq,        Abu Ghraib).                               statutes of the International Criminal       as the one in Sierra Leone, such            erable problems of command and

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CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21st CENTURY

HUMANITARIANS AS
TARGETS OF VIOLENCE?
Gilles Carbonnier
Professor of International Economics
Vice-President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)

                      T      he prevailing narrative portrays
                             humanitarian workers as increas-
                      ingly targeted by deliberate attacks.
                                                                  incidents and better reporting are part
                                                                  of the explanation. But the evolving
                                                                  nature of warfare is also key. The Aid
                                                                                                             explosives in densely populated areas
                                                                                                             (e.g. Mosul, Aleppo) – combined with
                                                                                                             targeted attacks on healthcare facili-
                      Historical evidence, however, tells us      Worker Security Report 2017 (published     ties – has increased the risk of civilians
                      that there has never been a golden age      by Humanitarian Outcomes) argues           and aid workers being injured or killed.
                      in which humanitarians were immune          that while states were responsible for     This is the result of disregard for the
                      from such attacks.1                         the highest number of aid worker fatal-    protection of civilians and the medical
                            The Aid Worker Security Database,     ities, most incidents were attributed      mission, as well as difficulty in abiding
                      which covers security incidents since       to the proliferation of decentralised      by the principles of precaution and
                      1997, reports that the total number of      non-state armed groups (NSAGs). The        proportionality when hostilities rage
                      those incidents dramatically increased      increasing fragmentation of such           in urban environments.
                      since the turn of the millennium: from
                      29 in 2001 to 265 in 2013, affecting                                                                                                 IRAQ, Baghdad.          all the way from field offices to head-                security, and to ensure adequate secu-               security guarantees from criminal
                      475 aid workers. Since then, incidents                                                                                               An employee of          quarters, at all levels. The protection                rity guarantees from the parties to the              groups primarily driven by the pursuit
                                                                                                                                                           the International
                      decreased to 158 in 2017, hitting 313                                                                                                Committee of the
                                                                                                                                                                                   of healthcare workers and facilities is                conflict. Maintaining close physical                 of profits from the war economy, or of
                      aid workers, 90% of whom were                                                                                                        Red Cross (ICRC)        being promoted through advocacy and                    proximity to the affected population                 how far it is necessary to avoid encoun-

                                                                        “Recorded kidnappings
                      national and 10% international staff.                                                                                                walks in front of the   diplomatic efforts. The capacity of                    – which can today increasingly be com-               ters with them altogether (e.g. moving
                            Over the same period, the human-                                                                                               ICRC headquarters       humanitarian workers to conduct front-                 plemented with digital proximity – is                by air rather than by road).
                                                                                                                                                           devastated by a

                                                                          rose from 7 in 2003
                      itarian market has boomed and the                                                                                                    suicide car bombing     line negotiations is being strengthened.               essential to securing broad accept-                       In specific circumstances, resort-
                      number of aid workers operating in                                                                                                   that left 12 people     Each serious security incident has to                  ance, not only of the type of humani-                ing to armed escorts or armoured vehi-
                                                                                                                                                           dead.
                                                                            to 66 in 2013.”
                      war-torn countries has soared in par-                                                                                                                        be carefully analysed in order to iden-                tarian action undertaken, but of its                 cles may be required. Such measures
                                                                                                                                                           29 October 2003.
                      allel. Yet, without accurate data on the                                                                                             Patrick BAZ/AFP
                                                                                                                                                                                   tify the specific underlying causes and                actors and purpose. Often, this entails              can offer temporary options for assist-
                      number of humanitarians in the field,                                                                                                                        the lessons to be drawn and shared.                    making sure that humanitarian action                 ing and protecting people in war, but
                      we do not know the extent to which                                                                                                                           There is also a concern to build and                   is understood to be aimed at saving                  should never be the long-term nor
                      the probability of an individual aid                                                                                                                         nurture a solid security culture within                lives, alleviating suffering and protect-            default solution. “Bunkerising” human-
                      worker suffering a security incident                                                                                                                         humanitarian organisations as a key                    ing human dignity – not at transform-                itarian action reduces proximity and
                      has increased globally. Besides, the                                                                                                                         element of a broader security policy.                  ing societies and polities, or winning               may feed distrust and reduce accept-
                      situation varies greatly depending on                                                                                                                        Every aid worker operating has a stake                 the hearts and minds of specific groups              ance. “Digital proximity” with people
                      the organisation and the context. Over      groups, coupled with rapidly shifting           The rise in security incidents is also                           in security management. An inappro-                    for a political agenda.                              affected by armed conflict can offer a
                      the past ten years, the majority of secu-   alliances, makes it harder for human-      linked to the blurring of lines between                               priate act or misbehaviour can affect                       The presence of criminal groups in              way to keep interacting and maintain
                      rity incidents took place in a few coun-    itarian organisations to obtain and        politically and economically motivated                                the security of other colleagues.                      war is nothing new, and conflict financ-             two-way communication even as inse-
                      tries such as Afghanistan (422 inci-        maintain solid security guarantees.        violence. Recorded kidnappings rose                                         For an impartial, neutral and inde-              ing is as old as war itself. Yet the blur-           curity temporarily prevents field
                      dents), followed by South Sudan (211),      Nearly half of today’s conflicts involve   from 7 in 2003 to 66 in 2013, often with                              pendent humanitarian organisation                      ring of lines between political and eco-             presence.
                      Somalia (173) and Syria (159).              between 3 and 9 opposing forces while      demands ranging from monetary ran-                                    like the ICRC, it is critical to be accepted           nomic agendas in war raises the
                            Why this surge in the absolute num-   22% of them have more than 10. In the      soms to political concessions such as                                 by all actors with influence on staff                  question of how feasible it is to get
                      ber of security incidents since 2001?       Libyan city of Misrata alone, over 230     the release of prisoners, or a commit-
                      The multiplication of humanitarian          armed groups were registered by            ment to refrain from attacking specific
                      organisations on the ground – and hence     October 2011.2                             locations over a given timespan.3                                     1
                                                                                                                                                                                       See e.g. M. Junod, Warrior without Weapon (Geneva: ICRC, 1982).
                      greater risk exposure – together with            Urban warfare intensified in recent        What can be done about it? Staff                                 2
                                                                                                                                                                                       ICRC, The Roots of Restraint in War (ICRC, 2018), p. 13.
                      enhanced media coverage of security         years. The use of heavy weapons and        security must of course be a top priority                             3
                                                                                                                                                                                       G. Carbonnier, Humanitarian Economics: War, Disaster and the Global Aid Market (Hurst and Oxford University Press, 2016).

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