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La Revue de l’Institut | The Graduate Institute Review #23 Printemps | Spring 2019
GLOBE
L’INSTIT U T
Un banquier au
service de la Genève
internationale
DOSSIER
Conflict and Violence
in the 21st Century
Éditeur : Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement CP 1672 – CH-1211 Genève 1 | Tél. : +41 22 908 57 00 | graduateinstitute.ch Responsable d’édition : Sophie Fleury, sophie.fleury @ graduateinstitute.ch Crédit photographique : Couverture : A man holding an infant stands on the balcony of a damaged house, after curfew ended in the southeastern Turkish town of Silopi on 19 January 2016. Turkey has with military operations backed by curfews aimed at flushing out rebels from several southeastern urban centres. Ilyas AKENGIN/AFP Impression : Imprimerie Nationale © The Graduate Institute, Geneva, April 2019 | ISSN : 1662-8497
La Revue de l’Institut | The Graduate Institute Review #23 Printemps | Spring 2019
ÉDITORIAL
2 Un monde préoccupant – Philippe Burrin
L’INSTITUT
3 Beatrice Weder di Mauro: A New Professor of International Economics
4 Ivan Pictet: un banquier au service de la Genève internationale
6 Columbia University Team Wins 2018 Geneva Challenge on Climate Change
THE GENEVA CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL DISPUTE
SETTLEMENT (CIDS)
7 Preparing Students for the Real World – Interview with Laurence Boisson
de Chazournes and Thomas Schultz
L’ACTUALITÉ
8 « Les cols blancs passeront à la trappe » – Richard Baldwin
10 Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learnt? – Cédric Tille
11 Brexit: From Bad to Worse – Cédric Dupont
LE DOSSIER – Conflict and Violence in the 21st Century
14 On (Political) Violence – Keith Krause
16 What Is Really New about the New Wars?
Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou
18 Sexual Violence: A New Weapon of War? – Elisabeth Prügl
20 Humanitarians as Targets of Violence? – Gilles Carbonnier
22 The Morphology of Urban Conflict – Ravi Bhavnani and Mirko Reul
24 The Fog of Crime: Gang Transformation and the Unpredictability of Violence
in Central America – Dennis Rodgers
LES PROFESSEURS
26 Professor Susanna Hecht Awarded the David Livingstone Centenary Medal
27 Contributing to a Healthier World – Ilona Kickbusch
28 When Teaching Is a Privilege – Anna Leander
LES ÉTUDIANTS
30 Supporting Talented Students from around the World
32 Regulating Social Media in Democracies
33 Changer le monde ? – Flora Demaegdt (Leturcq)
34 Vulgariser les connaissances pour servir le débat citoyen
LES ALUMNI
35 Portrait – Apolline Pierson
LE TÉMOIGNAGE
36 Le genre, une catégorie non seulement utile mais nécessaire
Entretien avec Christine Verschuur
LA RECHERCHE
37 Nouvelles publications
ÉDITORIAL
Un monde préoccupant
Philippe Burrin
Directeur de l’Institut
L ’état du monde est préoccupant. On l’entend, on le lit,
on le pense soi-même. On ne s’étonne pas que des
États restent en marge du système international ou en
élevé d’ouverture, d’échange, d’intégration. Des institu-
tions internationales seront contournées ou sommées de
se réformer, d’autres naîtront ou se développeront. Sous
minent les principes par leur action. Mais on s’inquiète de une forme ou une autre, des enceintes de négociation et
voir la puissance qui a défendu et promu, au des instruments de mise en œuvre de politiques interna-
lendemain de la Seconde Guerre mondiale, un tionales seront indispensables. La conscience de leur uti-
système multilatéral ramifié mettre en cause lité grandira au fur et à mesure que seront pris au sérieux
certaines de ses institutions et peut-être l’es- les défis que la planète doit affronter.
prit de la coopération internationale.
L’Institut est bien placé pour répondre aux jeunes gens
Cela se produit alors que les tensions géo- en quête de formation et aux professionnels voulant se
politiques reprennent de la vigueur, notam- perfectionner dans tout ce qui est global et international.
ment en Asie orientale, dans l’immense cein- Il est tout aussi bien placé pour fournir un savoir et une
ture qui va de l’Afrique du Nord au Pakistan, expertise dont les acteurs internationaux voient chaque
sur la frontière du monde russe et de l’Europe. jour davantage la nécessité. Sa place sera d’autant plus
Tandis qu’ont le vent en poupe nationalismes forte, à vrai dire, s’il sait encore mieux se profiler dans une
et populismes, éperonnés qu’ils sont par le changement gouvernance mondiale où la mise en réseau et en synergie
technologique et les disparités démographiques entre des trois types d’acteurs – publics, privés, à but non lucra-
régions vieillissantes et régions en forte croissance tif – requiert la compréhension de la logique de chacun et
démographique. le développement de leur collaboration.
Et l’Institut dans ce monde préoccupant ? Son rôle et
sa pertinence ne diminuent pas, ils deviennent plus impor-
tants que jamais. La globalisation connaît une décéléra-
tion, elle ne rebrousse pas chemin. Sauf conflit majeur, le
monde maintiendra dans un avenir prévisible un niveau
2
L’INSTITUT
A New Professor
of International Economics
BEATRICE WEDER DI MAURO (Switzerland and Italy)
PhD, University of Basel
B eatrice Weder di Mauro joined the Institute in January.
She is President of the Centre for Economic Policy
Research (CEPR), a leading network of more than 1,300
What shaped your interest
in macroeconomics?
My interest in international macroeconomics and finan-
top economists mostly based in Europe. CEPR promotes cial crises was mainly shaped by my experience working at
research excellence with policy relevance and has had a the International Monetary Fund in the aftermath of the
long standing and deep relationship with the Graduate collapse of the Soviet Union. I was the economist for
Institute: Professor Richard Baldwin was its previous Kyrgyzstan. Coming out of a fully centrally planned econ-
President and continues to serve as Editor-in-Chief of its omy, the entire monetary and fiscal system had to be re-de-
leading dissemination platform VoxEU.org, Professor signed. In many cases, transition economies went straight
Charles Wyplosz served as its Policy Director and now, into a high-inflation crisis. I also have an interest in the
Professor Ugo Panizza has become its Vice-President in development, growth and governance of emerging markets,
charge of New Ventures. which was triggered by growing up in Guatemala.
Beatrice Weder di Mauro is also Research Professor
and Distinguished Fellow at the Emerging Markets Institute What have you been working on recently?
of the Institut européen d’administration des affaires I have several work streams but I will concentrate on
(INSEAD) in Singapore. one about central banks and the risk in central bank bal-
ance sheets, which is joint work with Barry Eichengreen
Why did you decide to join the Graduate from the University of California, Berkeley, Julian Schumacher
Institute? from the European Central Bank and Bernd Bartels from
The Graduate Institute is a perfect fit for my main areas Scope. Central banks in advanced countries have expanded
of interest in my research and policy advice, international their balance sheets very significantly in the course of com-
macroeconomics and development. It has an excellent rep- batting the financial crisis. In particular, after the zero lower
utation in the international community and a deep relation- bound, they have embarked on non-conventional policies
ship with CEPR because both institutions share the goal of that involve buying securities, therefore expanding their
putting research excellence with policy relevance in the balance sheets. They now find themselves in a situation
service of society, globally. Moreover, I have known and that is quite unprecedented and that may lead to threats
respected the Graduate Institute for many years, have rec- to their independence and consequences for monetary pol-
ommended some of my best students for programmes here icy – and that is the general purpose of our research. More
and have always had a great appreciation for the excellent specifically, we investigate what is driving the risk in cen-
faculty. I also love the spirit of cosmopolitanism at the tral bank balance sheets and whether governance rules
Institute. It has already started to feel like home. protect them from political interference.
3
L’INSTITUT
Un banquier au service
de la Genève internationale
A ncien associé senior de la Banque Pictet, Ivan Pictet
préside la Fondation pour Genève, dont la mission est
de contribuer au rayonnement de Genève comme centre de
père a épousé une Suédoise, puis part un an à Stockholm
après le collège Calvin avant d’étudier à l’Université de
Saint-Gall – un parcours qui lui a fait voir sa ville de l’exté-
coopération multilatérale. La fondation déploie une activité rieur et lui a appris à l’apprécier pour ce qu’elle est : une
considérable pour renforcer la Genève internationale, petite ville grandie par son rôle international ;
notamment en faisant valoir son importance auprès des > Une expérience de banquier où l’international, juste-
Genevois et des Suisses (en régime de démo- ment, a tenu une grande place. Alors que la plupart des
cratie semi-directe, l’opinion des citoyens banquiers privés se concentrent sur les pays voisins, Ivan
compte), en facilitant l’accueil des expatriés et Pictet part dès les années 1980 « ouvrir » les marchés émer-
leur rapprochement avec les résidents, et en gents, ceux d’Asie en premier lieu, comme Hong Kong,
favorisant le rassemblement des acteurs inter- Singapour, et surtout le Japon où il se rend plus de 150 fois
nationaux au sein du Club diplomatique et du – une orientation qui joue un rôle certain dans l’expansion
Cercle International. et le succès de sa banque ;
Donnant sans compter de son temps et de > Enfin, un engagement au niveau local et national
son argent à la cause de la Genève internatio- dans la défense des intérêts économiques, notamment à la
nale, Ivan Pictet en est devenu au fil des Chambre de commerce de Genève et à Genève place finan-
années une figure centrale. Comment expliquer cière, deux organisations qu’il présidera pendant des années
cet engagement remarquable ? Du regard rétrospectif qu’il et qui lui font voir l’importance économique de la Genève
jette sur sa trajectoire, trois éléments se dégagent : internationale et comprendre combien le sort de la ville
> Une enfance cosmopolite qui le marque davantage dépend du riche tissu d’acteurs internationaux présents sur
qu’une histoire familiale étroitement liée à la vie de la cité la côte lémanique.
(aucune famille n’a donné autant de magistrats). Le jeune À partir de la fin des années 1990, ce « déraciné gene-
Ivan, lui, passe une partie de son enfance à Londres avec sa vois », selon ses termes, s’engage dans la défense et l’illus-
mère remariée à un Britannique, revient à Genève où son tration de la Genève internationale au sein de la Fondation
4
Vue aérienne pour Genève. Appelé au conseil d’administration du fonds espace d’exposition qui présente la Genève internationale
du Campus de de pension de l’ONU, dont il sera le premier président non dans son ensemble et fait voir le rôle indispensable qu’elle
la paix au cœur
de la Genève américain, il assume bénévolement une charge qui lui vaut joue dans la gouvernance mondiale. La réalisation de ce pro-
internationale. une réunion par mois à New York et une conférence télé- jet, qui se profile aujourd’hui sur un emplacement voisin de
Loïc MURIEL phonique par semaine. Elle lui fait rencontrer Kofi Annan, l’allée aux drapeaux du Palais des Nations, promet d’être le
alors secrétaire général des Nations Unies, pour lequel il couronnement de son engagement au service de la Genève
développera un attachement profond. À Genève, il côtoie internationale.
les acteurs de premier plan du système onusien, dont cer- Comment voit-il l’avenir ? Genève lui paraît conserver
tains l’impressionnent particulièrement, ainsi Sadako Ogata, tous ses atouts : le cosmopolitisme, la taille critique des
ancienne haut-commissaire des Nations Unies pour les réfu- compétences, le cadre agréable et sûr. Les difficultés
giés, Francis Gurry, directeur général de l’Organisation mon- demeurent, cependant – la cherté de la vie, l’engorgement
diale de la propriété intellectuelle, Pascal Lamy, ancien du territoire, l’endettement des finances publiques – alors
directeur général de l’Organisation mondiale du commerce, que d’autres montent à l’horizon : l’autoritarisme et le pro-
et Michael Møller, directeur général de l’Office des Nations tectionnisme, avec leurs pesanteurs et leur fonctionnement
Unies à Genève. en silo, sont des défis que les institutions internationales
En 2008, Ivan Pictet affecte une partie de sa fortune à doivent se préparer à relever. Mais Ivan Pictet a trop d’ex-
l’activité philanthropique. Intéressé par le développement périence et de hauteur de vue pour ne pas garder confiance :
de l’Institut, il donne à la fondation qu’il crée alors – la la planète aura besoin d’un effort continu de concertation,
Fondation Pictet pour le développement – une double mis- et la Genève internationale garde toute son importance.
sion dont les deux composantes ont partie liée avec sa pas-
sion pour la Genève internationale. La première consiste à PHILIPPE BURRIN
soutenir la création par l’Institut du Centre finance et déve- Directeur
loppement et à financer ses trois chaires. La seconde est de
permettre la construction d’un Portail des nations, un
5
L’INSTITUT
Columbia University Team
Wins 2018 Geneva Challenge
on Climate Change
The winning team
of the Geneva
Challenge with
T he Geneva Challenge was launched in 2014 under the
patronage of the late Kofi Annan and with the gener-
ous support of Swiss Ambassador Jenö Staehelin. This
showcase their top-tier skills in future editions of the com-
petition”, said Alonso Flores, member of the Columbia
University team, currently pursuing his Master in Public
Ambassador
Jenö Staehelin contest aims to present innovative and pragmatic solutions Administration with a concentration in Economic and
during the Award to address the main challenges of today’s world. Political Development.
Ceremony at The theme of the 2018 contest was to explore how chal- Other laureates included the teams from BRAC
Maison de la paix.
Éric ROSET lenges posed by climate change could be tackled to foster University and ETH Zürich, which were each awarded sec-
social and economic development. Out of 66 project entries ond prize ex aequo, and the teams from Kenyatta University
submitted by 259 students from teams hailing from all over and the University of Buenos Aires, which were each
the world, 15 teams were chosen as semi-finalists. The jury awarded third prize ex aequo.
then selected 5 finalist teams, one per continent (based on A special prize was also attributed in partnership with
the location of the university), who were invited to defend the Sustainable Development Solutions Network – Youth
their project at the Institute at the end of November. (SDSN Youth) to the team from the University of Toronto
The 2018 winner was the team from Columbia for its project “Enhanced Sustainable Concrete: Combining
University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) Existing Technologies in a Novel Manner to Promote the
with their project “Data Analytics for Sustainable Herding Sustainable Development of Water and Concrete Industries
(DASH)”. “DASH will disrupt the traditional approach to Worldwide”.
international development and public policymaking by The prizes were given out by Nane Annan, the wife of
unpacking the complexity of the modern-day herding, farm- the late Kofi Annan.
ing, and land-use nexus”, said the team. “DASH aims to In his congratulatory speech, Jenö Staehelin announced
create a blueprint for utilising big data and applying machine the theme for the sixth edition of the Geneva Challenge:
learning and artificial intelligence for better decision- the “Challenges of Health”. He stated that “many more
making under deep uncertainty.” efforts are needed to fully eradicate a wide range of dis-
“We are extremely happy to bring back the first prize eases and address many different, persistent and emerging
this year and strongly recommend SIPA students to health issues”.
6
THE GENEVA CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL DISPUTE SETTLEMENT (CIDS)
Preparing Students for the Real World
Interview with Laurence Boisson de Chazournes
Director of the LLM in International Dispute Settlement (MIDS), a joint programme with the University of Geneva
and Thomas Schultz
Director of Research at the Geneva Center for International Dispute Settlement (CIDS), a joint centre with the University of Geneva
As of September 2018, you were appointed The main plan for MIDS – whose 10th anniversary we Villa Moynier,
Co-directors of CIDS following Gabrielle celebrated last autumn – is to keep ensuring the pro- headquarters of
CIDS and MIDS.
Kaufmann-Kohler’s retirement. What are gramme’s student diversity, its disciplinary orientation cov-
the biggest challenges facing international ering both public and private aspects of international law
dispute settlement? and its overall professional aims. Perhaps we will push stu-
LBC. The world isn’t exactly at peace. International dents to be a bit more curious about some of the things that
disputes haven’t decreased and are unlikely to. Yet the aren’t quite right in the different systems they study – they
global demand for rule of law, for justice, for predictability must be prepared for the real world, where real challenges
is steadily becoming more could shape the future of the profession.
insistent. We need ever
more, and ever better, TS. CIDS research covers three areas: aca-
international dispute set- demic research, outreach and continuing edu-
tlement mechanisms to cation. Overall, we take a broad understanding
make the world a better, of dispute settlement and engage in interdisci-
safer and more just place. plinary projects. Our field is best not seen as a
silo cut off from its environment, concerned
TS. While a wide only with its own procedural mechanics. It is
array of intricate and embedded in social contexts, with which it has
technical legal questions relations of mutual influence.
remain to be solved, my sense is that what international Our research will focus on the questions we believe
dispute settlement needs most today is to be reconnected are the most intellectually pregnant, the ones that may
to its broader underlying economic, political, and societal influence the thinking most. With outreach we interact
implications – to be put into context. CIDS research will with society: public conferences, a named lecture series,
work on both of these strands. contributions to law reforms, interactions with NGOs and
the arbitration industry, and efforts to inform and help
What are the main plans for MIDS and CIDS resolve practical problems. We envisage podcasts, vlogs
research? and a public paper series. Our continuing education
LBC. International dispute settlement, as a field of includes a PhD seminar series, a summer school and vari-
legal practice, keeps growing at a rapid pace. As a result, ous short programmes for professionals working in law
educational programmes are sprouting all over the world. firms and in policymaking.
Today we have every intention of staying among the lead-
ers of these developments.
7
L’ACTUALITÉ
« Les cols blancs passeront
à la trappe »
Richard Baldwin, professeur d’économie internationale, est l’auteur de
The Globotics Upheaval : Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work,
paru en janvier 2019. Il annonce un grand chambardement dans le secteur
des services suite à la robotisation, la numérisation et la mondialisation
dans ce domaine (voir aussi p. 37).
The Globotics Upheaval apparaît Vous faites penser à Jeremy Rifkin
comme un suivi naturel de votre qui a publié The End of Work en 1995.
précédent ouvrage, The Great Allez-vous dans le même sens ?
Convergence. Quel est votre Le sociologue américain a décrit la révolution dans le
message ici ? monde du travail au fil des époques. Au XIX e siècle, la
Dans le dernier chapitre de The Great Révolution industrielle était liée au textile, à l’acier. À par-
Convergence, j’évoquais le rôle de la numéri- tir de 1870, les usines ont commencé à fabriquer des
sation et de l’automatisation dans le domaine moteurs, des médicaments et surtout des machines.
des services à l’intérieur d’un pays. Jusqu’à Désormais, nous sommes dans un monde où, grâce aux
récemment, ces deux phénomènes n’étaient technologies de la communication et de l’information, la
pas tellement mondialisés. À travers mes recherches, j’ai chaîne de production est automatisée, transfrontalière et
découvert que cela était en train de changer et avait le maîtrisée à distance. Ce phénomène est exacerbé par la
potentiel de modifier totalement le futur du travail. J’en ai mondialisation. Pour ma part, je parle de services qui
discuté avec beaucoup de monde, et mes interlocuteurs, peuvent être automatisés et dont la délocalisation ne pose
qu’ils soient chauffeur de taxi, directeur d’entreprise ou res- aucun problème.
ponsable politique, n’ont pas mesuré l’ampleur du cham-
bardement à venir. Ce livre devrait sonner comme un
avertissement.
8Rafael HARO, Est-ce cela, le nouveau palier de la Royaume-Uni, qui a voté en faveur du Brexit, donnent l’im-
2016 mondialisation ? pression d’un recul de la mondialisation. C’est entièrement
La chaîne de production automatisée, numérisée et faux. Tous les autres acteurs de la planète poursuivent une
transfrontalière a donné lieu à un boom des échanges politique de libéralisation. Après le retrait des États-Unis
internationaux et contribué à augmenter le niveau de vie du Partenariat transpacifique (TPP), les autres acteurs
de millions de personnes. Notamment en Chine, où des n’ont pas abandonné le projet ; au contraire, ils ont accé-
millions de travailleurs disciplinés, semi-formés, enthou- léré le mouvement.
siastes et surtout compétitifs ont trouvé un emploi.
Aujourd’hui, les entreprises chinoises vont produire en Les détracteurs de la mondialisation n’ont-ils
Éthiopie et dans d’autres pays africains. La hausse de la rien compris ?
production a créé un plus grand besoin en matières pre- Tout s’est plutôt bien passé dans les années 1990.
mières, de quoi tirer vers le haut de nombreux pays en Mais depuis une vingtaine d’années, on voit l’émergence
Asie, en Afrique et en Amérique du Sud. des inégalités, l’effondrement de la classe moyenne, des
licenciements. En France, les « gilets jaunes » ne sont pas
Et maintenant ? un mouvement contre la mondialisation, mais l’histoire col-
Ce phénomène touche désormais les services qui lective de personnes qui ont toutes des raisons indivi-
comptent de plus en plus dans la richesse mondiale. Dans duelles pour se mettre en colère. La situation aujourd’hui
le domaine de l’information par exemple, le Washington est clairement combustible. Elle va s’aggraver lorsque les
Post et Le Monde publient déjà des informations générées travailleurs seront encore plus en compétition avec des
par ordinateur. Conseils juridiques, rédaction, vérification, robots. On peut anticiper la perte de millions de places de
traduction des contrats, consultation médicale, plans d’ar- travail. Les grands changements ne se passent jamais en
chitecture sont réalisés à distance. La traduction automa- douceur.
tique et simultanée qui se fait avec des programmes de
plus en plus performants ouvre de grandes perspectives. Et l’avenir, donc ?
La digitalisation et la mondialisation ont donné lieu à la Imaginez un peu toutes les tâches que les « télé
création de plateformes comme Upwork. Avec une pré- migrants » peuvent accomplir. Dès lors il faudra de l’ingé-
sence dans une centaine de pays, ce fournisseur de ser- niosité humaine pour créer de nouveaux emplois pour ceux
vices brasse 2 milliards de dollars par an. Je ne parle pas qui seront sacrifiés. Il s’agira alors de penser à tout ce que
du travail à domicile, qui est lui-même une révolution, mais les robots ne pourront jamais faire, par exemple dans les
d’une armée mondiale de « télémigrants » compétents et domaines de la créativité, des relations humaines, de
compétitifs capables de fournir des services à l’appel. l’innovation, de l’éthique, de l’empathie, de services à la
Cette fois-ci, ce sont les cols blancs qui passeront à la communauté. À la fin, il est tout à fait envisageable de
trappe. Pour la première fois, ils rejoindront des cols bleus construire une société plus riche et plus bienveillante. Le
qui ont vu leur emploi partir en Asie ou en Europe de l’Est. problème concerne les années de chambardement, d’où le
Je dois tout de suite ajouter que cela ne suffira pas d’ar- titre de mon livre. Je suis pessimiste pour le court terme,
rêter le train de la mondialisation. mais optimiste pour le long terme.
Mais ce train n’est-il pas en perte de vitesse ? Cet entretien a été publié dans Le Temps du 4 février 2019.
On parle de slowbalisation… Propos recueillis par Ram Etwareea.
En effet, depuis quelques années, les investissements
baissent. Le commerce international ralentit. Oui, la slow-
balisation est indéniable. Mais c’est un phénomène natu-
rel. On aurait tort de le transformer en un synonyme de
démondialisation. Cette image est fausse. Nous ne
sommes pas dans les années 1930, lorsque la Grande
Dépression avait paralysé le monde. Il est vrai que les
États-Unis, qui prônent un certain protectionnisme, et le
9L’ACTUALITÉ
Ten Years after the Financial Crisis:
What Have We Learnt?
Cédric Tille
Professor of International Economics
SWITZERLAND,
Bern. Professor
Cédric Tille gave
A cademics and policymakers have learnt several insights
from the crisis. Interestingly, many of these are re-
discovery of issues that were understood but had been
Financial stability matters. “Micro” measures at the
level of individual banks and investors need to be accom-
panied by “macro” policies looking at the entire system.
a lecture on the
topic of this article viewed as secondary. This is challenging as the financial sector keeps evolving.
at the 14th Annual Macroeconomic analysis needs to take account of The global nature of many financial firms also requires some
Alumni Reception. financial markets. This was somewhat neglected before coordination of efforts by policymakers.
3 December 2018.
Éric ROSET the crisis, but no longer. A rich and growing literature Research has identified a global financial cycle (distinct
includes financial markets in macroeconomic models. from the business cycle) that reflects the varying appetite
Fiscal policy is receiving renewed attention. While it of investors for risk as well as policy in the world’s major
was not central in the debate before 2007, we now economies. Measuring this cycle and assessing its impact
understand that its effects are quite heterogeneous. It is on capital flows and financial conditions is the challenging
particularly effective in crisis times when private demand object of an active body of research. The cycle may be so
is constrained. Research has developed measures of “fiscal strong that a flexible exchange rate may not shield countries
space” to identify which countries can use this policy. from it – although this is debated. New tools are required
Central banks can rely on a range of tools even when to prevent swings in capital flows from fueling asset price
the interest rate has been lowered all the way to zero: bubbles. These include limits on what borrowers can do,
issuing large amounts of money, communicating on future and restriction on what lenders can do.
policy, purchasing risky assets. These tools may have to be We now have a better understanding of how financial
used quite regularly in the future. Interest rates have been conditions affect the economy. Substantial efforts have
low for a long time, and this reflects deep forces, such as been undertaken to make banks more resilient, but we’ll
the high demand for “safe” assets that keep their value only know in the next recession whether this was enough.
even during major crises. The world economy faces an The world economy could soon enter a weak phase, leaving
imbalance between a high demand for such assets and policymakers faced with substantial challenges in responding
limited supply. Interest rates will likely remain persistently as interest rates are still low and the room for fiscal policy
low, raising many questions, such as how pension funds limited.
should respond.
10L’ACTUALITÉ
Brexit: From Bad to Worse
Cédric Dupont
Professor of International Relations/Political Science
Director of Executive Education
D ivorces often turn sour and Brexit – the withdrawal
of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union
(EU) – is, unfortunately, a case in point. Initiated by a ref-
Flawed Negotiation Setup
Europeans also share their responsibility for the current
impasse: they imposed a negotiation process in two phases.
Big Ben and
the Houses of
Parliament on
erendum that was an electoral promise of the British The first phase focused on key principles of the withdrawal the River Thames.
Conservative Party to address an enduring internal division and the second on the future relationship. The flaw came Robert INGELHART/
within its ranks, three years later, Brexit has become the with the choice to include, as a matter of principle, the absence iStock
source of deeper and fiercer national divisions in Britain of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Yet,
and a major embarrassment and irritation in the EU. How the status of the Irish border could not be settled
did this happen? without knowing what the future relationship
would look like. Prevented by design to discuss
Fantasyland Britain that relationship, the two parties were thus forced
The British government has been living in a fantasyland, to include in the withdrawal agreement the
raising unrealistic expectations and never deflating them infamous backstop provision to seal off, if needed,
publicly. In January 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May laid Ireland from the British mainland, infuriating
out some firm points defining the characteristics of what British Unionists. Pragmatism should have
would be a good negotiation withdrawal agreement for the prevailed over a rigid, misplaced, principle.
UK: the country would seize back control over immigration
and trade policy; they would be out of the single market The Reign of Confrontational Politics
but still enjoy it short of having to adopt EU regulatory With one party living in a fantasyland and the other
instruments or be in conformity with them. No one with rigidly committed to key principles, confrontation and
some essential understanding of what economic integration posturing reigned during the international negotiation
means and how the EU functions should have been fooled process. Confrontation also characterised domestic
by such a plan but the large majority of the UK’s domestic discussions in Britain: in a political system that serves a
audience lacks such understanding and has indeed been two-party autocracy, the government sought, foremost, to
fooled. When time came for a reality check (enjoying the keep its own camp united with little or no effort to build
single market means regulatory and trade policy constraints), bridges with the other camp.
the government did not dare to deflate expectations nor All in all, there was little, if any, give and take in the
adapt its behaviour to avoid losing face and the confidence process, ending in an excruciating ratification process in
of the public. Britain.
11Dossier produced in collaboration with the Centre on Conflict, Development and Peacebuilding and based on Global Challenges (no. 5, 2019), the Graduate Institute’s series of research dossiers. > http://globalchallenges.ch Women wearing full-face veils (niqabs) walk with children alongside others said to be members of the Islamic State (IS) group by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), exiting from the village of Baghouz in the eastern Syrian province of Deir Ezzor. 14 March 2019. Delil SOULEIMAN/AFP 12
DOSSIER
CONFLICT AND
VIOLENCE IN
THE 21st CENTURY
13CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21st CENTURY
ON (POLITICAL) VIOLENCE
Keith Krause
Professor of International Relations/Political Science
Head of the International Relations/Political Science Department
MEXICO, Monterrey.
Members of the
Ministerial Police
A seemingly bewildering array of
forms of violence confronts us in
the 21st century. Large-scale gang
To begin: most contemporary le-
thal violence does not occur in con-
flict zones, but in states that are not
is organised, non-random, and in some
sense political. This contrasts sharply
with the 20th century and its 60–80
work at a crime
scene where five warfare in Central America, Western at war. Non-conflict settings such as million deaths by war and roughly 100
taxi drivers were interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, El Salvador, Venezuela, and Honduras million deaths by “state violence”.
killed by gunmen hybrid warfare in eastern Ukraine, have higher levels of deadly violence How should we try to understand
at Solidarity City
neighbourhood, terrorist attacks in Europe, civil war than war zones (excepting Syria and these diverse forms of violence? Three
in a poor area of in Syria, or armed militias in the Iraq). According to the Small Arms traditional limitations to the study of
Monterrey, Nuevo Democratic Republic of the Congo – all Survey’s Global Violent Deaths 2017 violence need first to be overcome.
Leon State.
seem to portray a world of ever-greater report, 560,000 people died violently The first limitation is the compart-
21 February
2012. Julio Cesar danger. Yet just how violent are in 2016, but only about 100,000 (18%) mentalisation of violence studies: in-
AGUILAR/AFP contemporary global politics, and how were killed in war zones. Even if this terstate and civil war and organised
– if at all – have armed conflict and number is misleadingly low (because armed actors are covered by interna-
political violence changed since the it omits the indirect but still lethal bur- tional relations, gangs by sociology
end of the Cold War? Three facts will den of war), it shows that war is only or anthropology, organised crime by
help us answer the first question; the one piece of a larger puzzle of contem- criminology, and sexual and gen-
second is more complex. porary armed violence, much of which der-based violence by gender studies.
14“Most contemporary
This compartmentalisation hinders our
understanding of the way seemingly
lethal violence
different forms of violence may be
linked through complex processes
does not occur
that escalate and exacerbate conflicts,
and that may have broader impacts
in conflict zones.”
on human security, political and social
life, state fragility, and regional order.
Sexual violence in (and after) conflicts,
for example, is related to other forms
of violence, and this relationship is
not one-way, with war causing high-
er levels of sexual and gender-based
violence. There are deeper processes
at work, as states with lower levels of can be identified and categorised by can escalate and spread to large-scale
gender equality and higher levels of focusing on the degree and scale of political uprisings and even civil war
gender-based violence are more likely organisation of the violent actors, or transnational terrorism.
to be involved in interstate conflicts the meaning and motivations or pur- Violence prevention and reduction
or to initiate the use of force, and are pose of the acts, or the nature of the is at the heart of the Sustainable De-
less likely to comply with international act itself. None of these criteria by velopment Goals. If the international
norms. Likewise, the rituals, organisa- themselves are sufficient, however, community is to successfully tackle
tional forms, and modes of action of without clarifying what we mean conflict and political violence in the
some South American gangs would by “violence” and “political”. From a 21st century, however, it will have to
resonate with those of West African holistic perspective, defining political go beyond categories such as war, ter-
warlords, for instance. violence as violence used for explicitly rorism, gang violence, and homicide
The second limitation is to draw a stated political ends, or violence that to address the wide range of sources,
sharp distinction between political undermines and challenges the state’s causes, and consequences of violence.
and non-political (criminal, interper- legal monopoly over the legitimate use Many of these causes, such as weak
sonal, economically motivated) vio- of force, or violence that implicates the institutions, gender inequality, gov-
lence. This narrowly criminological state and its repressive apparatus, ernance failure or state corruption,
or legalistic perspective, which labels may be essential for gaining insight are intensely political, have national
all non-conflict deaths as “homicides”, into the causes and consequences of, and international implications, are
is misleading. Homicide conjures up and framing appropriate responses to, interlinked, and demand a holistic ap-
a form of interpersonal violence that war and political violence in the 21st proach to understanding and action.
is individual, unorganised, relatively century.
random, and essentially apolitical (and The third limitation that must be
very rare in advanced industrialised overcome is an undue focus on a pure-
states). This is an inadequate way ly somatic understanding of violence
to think about the more than 50,000 as the intentional use of physical force
violent deaths in cartel-related gang to cause harm. Psychological violence,
warfare in Mexico, or land-rights dis- violence by deprivation, neglect or
putes in Yemen that claimed several omission, and such things as system-
thousand lives a year (and that have ic, structural or symbolic violence are
now escalated into full-scale war). also crucial to understanding how vio-
The question “What makes vio- lent acts – such as the repression and
lence political?” has no simple and harassment by state officials of street
unambiguous answer. Most scholar- vendor Mohamed Bouazizi in a small
ship assumes that political violence city outside Tunis in December 2010 –
15CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21st CENTURY
WHAT IS REALLY NEW
ABOUT THE NEW WARS?
Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou
Professor of International History
Head of the International History Department
I n his history of newness (Novelty,
2013), Michael North remarks that
actual innovation only exists at the
multi-variant warfare, small wars,
low-intensity wars or wars of the third
kind had materialised, these did not
which would have disappeared, but
in the addition of previously absent
layers and perspectives. These are
very crest of a wave. That is so, argues amount to fundamental change. To be visible in at least three key respects.
the UCLA professor, since innovation certain, the age-old nature of war has Firstly, there has been important
is dependent on its relative unfamili- not been the object of variation; it discontinuity in war introduced by
arity to a new audience. By that reck- remains, as Carl von Clausewitz unprecedented technological innova-
oning, the “new wars” are no longer famously captured it in his 1832 work tion, namely the magnitude of the
new. Close to thirty years later, that On War, a political act carried through information revolution and specifically
which could be seen to constitute a the use of force to compel an enemy. the densification and intensification
new generation of armed conflict in Continuity in essence does not, how- of interconnectedness. The coinci-
the early 1990s is today arguably passé. ever, preclude alteration in form. dence of globalisation with a reorder-
ing of international affairs along those
lines opened vast new possibilities of
a faster and wider type of armed “com-
“Continuity in essence
pelling force”, a type of violence ever
projected under less and less predict-
does not, however, preclude
able forms. This stood in stark contrast
to here-and-now, classical army-on-
alteration in form.”
army clashes.
Secondly, there has been a steady
movement away from the state’s cen-
trality in war. Armed conflicts have
long featured a multitude of other
actors, but in the modern era they had
To understand the nature of the alleged To North’s point, unfamiliarity was been overwhelmingly dominated – fol-
modulation in warfare is therefore to palpably present in the early 1990s as lowing Max Weber’s 1918 classical
focus not merely on the idea of new- the world haphazardly segued into the definition – by single state entities
ness but rather on the characteristics post–Cold War era and as the archi- enjoying the monopoly of legitimate
of a historical moment, which marked tecture of international affairs moved violence and their soldiers endowed
a caesura from an older to a newer away from bipolarity. Albeit in slow with a licence to kill. The past thirty
form of war. motion rather than spectacularly and years have witnessed an ever-expand-
The idea that war has changed has in uniformity, new distinct trends in ing cast of transnational armed groups
been opposed by several thinkers, such the organisation and manifestation of populating, in variegated ways and
as Mats Berdal and J. David Singer. It war did cement since, and we should round the world, a new grammar of
was maintained, notably, that the not therefore dogmatically shy away autonomisation and privatisation of
evolving features of armed conflict do from embracing the novelty they have war. This, too, was a departure from
not amount to novelty per se, and that given shape to. The novelty rests not the previous generation of conflict dom-
whatever complex emergencies, in opposition to older forms of conflict, inated by the dual trope of statehood
16USA, New York, and monopoly. The reality is that state war”, to use Tarak Barkawi’s phrase, next phase, we need to pay further
New York. The actors have taken a back seat to the spells intellectual recognition that the attention to how war is now choreo-
setting sun is
reflected off One development of war. Their response in earlier conceptualisation of war was graphed and staged ever confusingly
World Trade Center upgrading their technology towards in effect excluding actors and modes (social media themselves have become
and the World asymmetric threats (e.g., drone war- of force projection organised differ- a tool in modern warfare) and how
Trade Center PATH fare, cyberwarfare) is indeed evidence ently than the post-Napoleonic moments of war, rather than a linear
station at Ground
Zero the night of the fact that it was the non-state European concert of nations. temporal sequence, are more often
before the 15th actors who took them down the road To historicise war is to document the norm.
anniversary of the from battlefield to battlespace. today the emergence, persistence and
11 September 2001
terrorist attacks.
Finally, above and beyond behav- fleshing out of fluidity, open-ended-
10 September ioural aspects, the new wars are in ness, de-statisation, privatisation,
2016. Brendan and of themselves evidence that our fragmentation and hybridity playing
SMIALOWSKI/AFP academic gaze on war had long been out from Bosnia to Yemen by way of
scientifically incomplete and culturally Mali and Ukraine. If sabotage has
skewed. To think of war in the same always existed, malware and hacking
continuous mode is, in effect, to insist are new kinds of weapons. If merce-
on the dominance of a single, classi- naries have always been there,
cal, major powers-driven, state-centric Blackwater stepped up the game
tradition immune to the influence of patrolling New Orleans and Baghdad
others – a perspective on global affairs and contemplating full-fledged priva-
akin to Eurocentrism. “Decolonising tisation of the Afghanistan war. In the
17CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21st CENTURY
SEXUAL VIOLENCE:
A NEW WEAPON OF WAR?
Elisabeth Prügl
Professor of International Relations/Political Science
Director of the Gender Centre
SOUTH SUDAN,
Bentiu.
Peacekeepers
H orrifying stories of sexual vio-
lence perpetrated in the context
of armed conflict have become ubiq-
Yazidi women in Northern Iraq, and
Rohingya women and girls fleeing the
Myanmar military all seem to point to
Whether or not sexual violence is
effective as a strategy of war, it has
clear effects on its victims. The psycho-
serving with the
United Nations uitous. The issue first burst on the inter- the new normality of such practices. logical costs are immeasurable as it
Mission (UNMISS) national agenda with the rape camps Increasing evidence shows that sexual demolishes a basic sense of security;
conduct a patrol for reported from Bosnia in the 1990s. violence targets also men, and there for men it often in addition puts in ques-
women to safely
collect firewood in Infamous reports of sexual exploitation have been reports of significant levels tion their masculinity. Costs to commu-
the areas around and abuse from UN peacekeepers of such violence in the Democratic nities include the destruction of trust
the Protection of trailed these stories of systematic rape. Republic of Congo (DRC), Syria, Sri and social cohesion. Moreover, groups
Civilians’ site.
10 December 2018.
Reliable statistics of the extent of such Lanka, Peru, and Bosnia. Sexual vio- that are selectively targeted may decide
Isaac BILLY/ violence and abuse are difficult to lence against men differs in form (e.g. to leave an area rather than risk becom-
UN Photo establish. However, neither issue has it includes castration in addition to ing the victims of violations.
gone away, and there is a sense that rape, forced prostitution and other vio- International policies affirm the
sexual violence in conflict has become lations women experience), and it is weapon-of-war character of sexual vio-
a standard repertoire of warfare. more often perpetrated in situations lence. It was recognised as a war crime
Sexual violence against women and of detention (such as for example at and a crime against humanity in the
girls in Yemen, South Sudan, and Iraq, Abu Ghraib). statutes of the International Criminal
18Court in 2002. Moreover, in a series of violence was rampant but did not control in undisciplined armed groups.
resolutions since 2008, the UN Security involve specific ethnic targeting, con- More typically, armed groups provide
Council has condemned the practice tradicting the idea that it was a stra- a permissive environment. Indeed,
and sought measures to counteract it, tegic instrument of genocide. One research with perpetrators in the DRC
including the deployment of Women’s explanation is that gang rapes there shows them complaining that they
Protection Advisors in its peacekeeping may have served as a means of social- often go without pay and thus cannot
missions, the appointment of a Special ising militia members. Indeed, there is either buy sex or marry and therefore
Representative of the Secretary-General evidence that such rapes are more com- feel that rape is justified. Orders from
on Sexual Violence in Conflict, and the mon in militias that forcibly recruit their command play less of a role in this than
creation of UN Action, a programme to members, often young boys. In con- expectations of masculinity and a
prevent and respond to conflict-related trast, sexual violence is less common sense of male entitlement.
sexual violence. But there is concern among leftist insurgents, as was the Framing sexual violence as a
that the new visibility lent by this nor- case in El Salvador and Peru; and weapon of war is also problematic
mative framework to sexual violence although there are documented cases because it draws an artificial line
also has inadvertently normalised it as of such violence in the Revolutionary between such violence perpetrated in
a standard weapon of war. Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), war and outside war. Against this,
some feminists have argued that sex-
ual violence itself needs to be consid-
ered an act of political violence enabled
by patriarchal structures, institutions,
“Empirical evidence
and values. They worry that establish-
ing conflict-related sexual violence as
contradicts the
something qualitatively different from
sexual violence more broadly disre-
common sense
gards the conditions that make it pos-
sible. It is indeed difficult to think of
that conflict-related
societies rent by sexual violence as
peaceful. Conversely, definitions of
sexual violence
war based purely on battle deaths
ignore the experiences of women, as
is ubiquitous.”
sexual violence often continues long
after the guns have been silenced.
Framing conflict-related sexual vio-
lence as strategic and thus different
from such violence outside armed con-
flict problematically obscures that
Yet, empirical evidence contradicts these are far outstripped by the level “peace” typically is built on a patriar-
the common sense that conflict-related of sexual violence perpetrated by the chal bargain. The new visibility of sex-
sexual violence is ubiquitous. Research paramilitaries. ual violence may therefore lead us to
shows that there are significant vari- Framing sexual violence as a begin to question the distinction
ations in its prevalence and is begin- weapon of war has served to mobilise between war and peace and recognise
ning to discern some patterns. Some governments and the UN but it is also the pervasive harm done to populations
suggest that sexual violence may be problematic because it assumes that gendered “other” in the wars that con-
more common in ethnic conflicts such warring groups obey a hierarchy of stitute their everyday lives.
as that in the former Yugoslavia, where command where soldiers follow orders
it supported a genocidal agenda. to rape. Studies show that this is not
However, in other ethnic conflicts, such always the case, and there are consid-
as the one in Sierra Leone, such erable problems of command and
19CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN THE 21st CENTURY
HUMANITARIANS AS
TARGETS OF VIOLENCE?
Gilles Carbonnier
Professor of International Economics
Vice-President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)
T he prevailing narrative portrays
humanitarian workers as increas-
ingly targeted by deliberate attacks.
incidents and better reporting are part
of the explanation. But the evolving
nature of warfare is also key. The Aid
explosives in densely populated areas
(e.g. Mosul, Aleppo) – combined with
targeted attacks on healthcare facili-
Historical evidence, however, tells us Worker Security Report 2017 (published ties – has increased the risk of civilians
that there has never been a golden age by Humanitarian Outcomes) argues and aid workers being injured or killed.
in which humanitarians were immune that while states were responsible for This is the result of disregard for the
from such attacks.1 the highest number of aid worker fatal- protection of civilians and the medical
The Aid Worker Security Database, ities, most incidents were attributed mission, as well as difficulty in abiding
which covers security incidents since to the proliferation of decentralised by the principles of precaution and
1997, reports that the total number of non-state armed groups (NSAGs). The proportionality when hostilities rage
those incidents dramatically increased increasing fragmentation of such in urban environments.
since the turn of the millennium: from
29 in 2001 to 265 in 2013, affecting
475 aid workers. Since then, incidents
decreased to 158 in 2017, hitting 313
aid workers, 90% of whom were
“Recorded kidnappings
national and 10% international staff.
Over the same period, the human-
rose from 7 in 2003
itarian market has boomed and the
number of aid workers operating in
to 66 in 2013.”
war-torn countries has soared in par-
allel. Yet, without accurate data on the
number of humanitarians in the field,
we do not know the extent to which
the probability of an individual aid
worker suffering a security incident
has increased globally. Besides, the
situation varies greatly depending on
the organisation and the context. Over groups, coupled with rapidly shifting The rise in security incidents is also
the past ten years, the majority of secu- alliances, makes it harder for human- linked to the blurring of lines between
rity incidents took place in a few coun- itarian organisations to obtain and politically and economically motivated
tries such as Afghanistan (422 inci- maintain solid security guarantees. violence. Recorded kidnappings rose
dents), followed by South Sudan (211), Nearly half of today’s conflicts involve from 7 in 2003 to 66 in 2013, often with
Somalia (173) and Syria (159). between 3 and 9 opposing forces while demands ranging from monetary ran-
Why this surge in the absolute num- 22% of them have more than 10. In the soms to political concessions such as
ber of security incidents since 2001? Libyan city of Misrata alone, over 230 the release of prisoners, or a commit-
The multiplication of humanitarian armed groups were registered by ment to refrain from attacking specific
organisations on the ground – and hence October 2011.2 locations over a given timespan.3
greater risk exposure – together with Urban warfare intensified in recent What can be done about it? Staff
enhanced media coverage of security years. The use of heavy weapons and security must of course be a top priority
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