Copernicus Climate Change Service: RST
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Copernicus Climate Change
Service:
De l’observation à l’action
Jean-Noël Thépaut
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
Centre Européen des Prévisions Météorologiques à
Moyen Terme
Climate Change
jean-noel.thepaut@ecmwf.int
Twitter: @JeanNoelThepaut
MTES, Paris 14/10/ 2019
Le programme Copernicus en une planche
Copernicus
6 services use Earth
Copernicus Sentinels Observation data to
Other Satellites
deliver …
"in-situ"
…added-value products 2
L a m i s s i o n d u C O P E R N I C U S C L I M AT E C H A N G E S E R V I C E ( C 3 S )
Climate
Change
Le service est destiné aux institutions et politiques européennes
ainsi qu'au grand public et aux industriels du secteur privé.
Ce service est un outil d'aide à la décision, notamment pour les
mesures d'adaptation et d'atténuation des effets du changement
climatique
• Il fournit un vaste portfolio d’information climatique (passé,
present, futur) cohérente et faisant autorité
• Il s’appuie sur les investissements nationaux, européens et
mondiaux en matière de recherche et d’infrastructures.
• Il stimule le marché des services climatiques en Europe
L a m i s s i o n d u C O P E R N I C U S C L I M AT E C H A N G E S E R V I C E ( C 3 S )
Climate
Change
C3S: Un Service paneuropéen et opérationnel pour l'accès à
l'information climatique
Qui contribute à la mise en place de
C3S?
Climate
Change
C3S:
Un effort Européen majeur
~300 entités (PMEs, Agences,
Universités, ..) de
29 états membres de l’UE et ECMWF,
Organisations internationals, et pays
non EFTA
C3S portfolio: Access to past, present and future
Climate
climate information
Change Observations, climate data records, ECVs and climate
Courtesy:
Reanalyses Philip
Brohan
Seasonal forecast data
and products Climate model simulations
Sectoral climate impact indicators
C3S et ECVs: - à partir d’observations in-
situ/satellite et réanalyses
Climate
Change Objective
o Provide users with full and timely access to observational records of essential climate
variables derived from satellite observations
C3S is a direct operational response to demand represented by GCOS
(Global Climate Observing System) requirements
Status
o 22 from the 55 GCOS
ECVs provided (+ those
consistently generated
by global reanalyses)
Coordination avec les autres Services
Copernicus (Atmosphere, Marine, Land)
ERA5: Réanalyse globale de l’atmosphere: 1950-2019
ERA-Interim not available for
dates beyond August 2019
Migration to ERA5 has
(mostly) completed
Skill of ERA5 re-forecasts:
Up to one day gain with
respect to ERA-Interim
ERA5 is available @C3S:
Currently: 1979 onwards, 2-3 months behind real time
By end 2019: timely updates, ERA5T, 2-5 days latency
By 2020 Q2: Back extension 1950-1978
ERA-Interim ERA5 ERA5-Land
ERA5 land: available from 2001
1981-2000 later this year; 2020: back to 1950
9km Land downscaling from ERA5
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
L’o f f r e C 3 S
Climate
Change
• Accès total, ouvert et libre à l’information climatique
• Une boîte à outils
• Information sur les impacts sectoriels
• Assurance qualité
• Soutien utilisateurs et formation
• Bulletins surveillance du climat
• Communication
One-stop Climate Data Store
http://climate.copernicus.eu
G r o w i n g D e m a n d a n d m a n y Te r a b y t e s d e l i v e r e d
Climate
Change
Parmi les défis:
• Comment mieux cibler l’offre au
delà des académiques?
• Comment mieux servir les
besoins en matière de
legislation/regulation
européenne
C3S opérationnelLes données les plus populaires
Climate
Change
Une journée ordinaire.. Le 13 de chaque mois..
11D e s d o n n é e s b r u t e s à l ’a c t i o n
Climate
Change
Quality assured information and tools for
scientists, consultants, decision makers.Applications Sectorielles
Climate Proof-of-concepts of climate services:
Change
Demonstration of the value chain with
several end-to-end demonstrators
As an operational Service, C3S is an enabler of downstream climate services, by
providing or brokering high quality and sector relevant climate data and indicators,
good practices, tools and by supporting compelling use cases.
Voir presentation par Carlo BuontempoC3S delivery: European State of the Climate – April each year
Climate
Change
Voir presentation par Freja VamborgUser uptake by the media
Climate BBC, July 2018
Change
Credit: ZDF – German State TV, Özden Terli, C3S
Media partnerships with
Voir presentation par Freja VamborgExemple: Impact Media: Août 2019
Climate
Change
16Evaluation and Quality Control (EQC)
Climate
Change A suitable EQC framework has been developed for quality assurance of CDS datasets
Key feature: Quality Assurance Reports to be published on the CDS
Quality of data:
• assessments
Quality • user guidance
• gaps and limitations
Quality of tools:
• fitness for purpose
• best practices
Quality of service:
• speed, responsiveness
• system availability, …Besoins utilisateurs et leur analyse
Climate
Change
Traceability back to User Requirements
18Analyse continue des besoins des utilisateurs
Climate
Change
Requirements related to the CDS
User requirement collection Q2 2019How to address challenges to come (>2021)
Climate
Change
• Decadal Prediction:
– Rationale:
• Current user requirements surveys and
discussions with C3S stakeholders clearly
indicate the need for information at
decadal timescales.
• Current Gap in the Service
• Attribution and Extreme Events: Credit: WCRP
– Rationale:
• High interest from the society (media,
policy makers, planners)
• Event attribution studies aim at
providing a rigorous scientific approach
to determine to what extent weather-
related risks have changed due to human
influences on climate
• Current Gap in the ServiceConclusions
Climate
Change
• C3S started its development early 2015 and has been operational since summer
2018 and is a direct response to GCOS requirements
• C3S benefits from European underpinning research and provides an coherent
infrastructure for downstream applications
• C3S works with other European Agencies to ensure coherent climate information
offer to EU policies
• Huge effort has been made on the infrastructure (CDS), traceability and quality
assurance, as well as on communication, training and outreach
• User requirements gathering (time scales, resolution – global to local, impacts, etc..)
from a wide variety of stakeholders is a continual challengeVous pouvez aussi lire
