Le Pétrole et son avenir ? Une approche pragmatique - Charles Thiemele - 3 Juin 2021 - Ampersand World
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Le Pétrole et son
avenir ?
Une approche
pragmatique….
Charles Thiemele – 3 Juin 2021
To : Aurelien SIX
CO2 taxes to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Embryonic Growth Mature Aging
pre -1900s 1900 - 2000 2000 - 2050? Post 2050?
Où en-est– Discovery of International End-user switch to Low wind & PV LCOE
on petroleum
First steps in E&P
activities
combustion market
growth
Periods of cheap
oil promoted
electricty
Natural gas displacing
oil for generation
Storage-cost reductions
Electric vehicles
mandatory in large cities
aujourdhui ?
Beginnings of the Renewables sources
displacement of Aggressive CO2
refining industry penetration
wood and coal taxation
Figure 1: Oil industry maturity curve
• Les prédictions annoncent : la fin du pétrole et un • L’actualité :
nouveau monde sans pollution à l’horizon 20X0 ? • Annonce de la taxation du CO2
Quid du X0 ? • Votation en Suisse du 13 Juin ( loi sur le CO2)
• Les décisions du Mercredi 26 Mai – Black Wednesday
20 : Presque Business As Usual • Décision de la Cour Suprême Allemande pour 2050
30 : Peak Oil annoncé pour 2035 par certains experts • Prédictions post COVID
40/50 : Plus réaliste et en ligne avec les différents targets
!
Où en-est–
on
aujourdhui ?
• Le Syndrome du Black Wednesday….plus rien ne
sera plus jamais comme avant :
• La responsabilité des Boards
• Le concept du pollueur-payeur
• Les activistes sont écoutés et gagnent des
batailles
• La fin de la toute puissance du Big Oil ?
Quelles
influences ?
Renewable / Clean
Fossil Fuel based World 2035….2050
Energy based World
1/ Les lobbys ‘ verts’ :
Greenpeace
Greta Thunberg etc.
Accord de Paris ( COP…)
2/ Les anti-pétroles
3/ Les facteurs influenceursEmbryonic Growth Mature Aging
pre -1900s 1900 - 2000 2000 - 2050? Post 2050?
Quelles
influences ? Discovery of
petroleum
International
combustion market
End-user switch to
electricty
Low wind & PV LCOE
Storage-cost reductions
growth
First steps in E&P Natural gas displacing
Electric vehicles
activities Periods of cheap oil for generation
mandatory in large cities
oil promoted
Beginnings of the Renewables sources
displacement of Aggressive CO2
refining industry penetration
wood and coal taxation
1/ La demande Figure 1: Oil industry maturity curve
2/ La production
3/ Les facteurs internes :
* La reprise post-COVID
* La reduction des stocks
* La lenteur des investissements de conversion
3/ Les facteurs externes :
* Accords Opec / Opec +
* Les électrons libres : Iran / Lybie / Iraq / Nigéria etc. ( Géopolitique / Résolution des conflits)
* Les nouvelles productions : découvertes et investissements GreenfieldLa
demande?
1/ LA CONSOMMATION MONDIALE
LE FACTEUR LE PLUS IMPORTANT ET LE PLUS INFLUENT SUR LE MONDE DU PETROLE
* IL IMPACTE LE PRIX PLUS QUE TOUT AUTRE FACTEUR - EX. MARS 2020
* C’EST LE DRIVER PRINCIPAL DE L’ACTIVITÉ ET CELUI VERS LEQUEL SE TOURNENT LES
GROS PRODUCTEURS ( PRIX, PART DE MARCHE ETC.)
SON EVOLUTION SUR LES PROCHAINES PÉRIODES DÉTERMINERA :
* LE PRIX DU PÉTROLE A MOYEN/LONG TERME
* LE COMPORTEMENT DE L’OPEC/OPEC+ ET DES GROS PRODUCTEURS
* LA DIMENSION DES INVESTISSEMENTS DANS L’UPSTREAM (-5% si 0 investissement )
* Entre $3T et $20T pour compenser la demande actuelle sur 30 ans
* L’IMPORTANCE RELATIVE DE CERTAINS PAYS ET CERTAINES ECONOMIES
* EXEMPLE : INDE / CHINE / ARABIE SAOUDITE
AUJOURD’HUI, ON RESTE DANS UN MONDE A PLUS DE 80% DE CONSOMMATION ‘OIL&GAS’The 10 largest oil1 producers and share of total world oil production2 in 20203
La
Country Million barrels per day Share of world total
United States 18.60 20%
Saudi Arabia 11.01 12%
Russia 10.50 11%
production?
Canada 5.29 6%
China 4.93 5%
Iraq 4.16 4%
United Arab Emirates 3.79 4%
Brazil 3.78 4%
2/ Quelques faits sur la production : Iran
Kuwait
2.81
2.66
3%
3%
Total top 10 67.52 72%
• Des découvertes importantes continuent….. World total 94.24
alors que l’on annonce la fin du Pétrole : elles sont nécessaires12 Oil
pour soutenir
includes crude oil, alllaother
demande.
petroleum liquids, and biofuels.
Production includes domestic production of crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, biof
processing gain.
• Investissements de plusieurs centaines de Milliards par3 Source:
an ! International Energy Statistics, Total oil (petroleum and other liquids) produc
The 10 largest oil1 consumers and share of total world oil consumption in 20182
• Les USA sont le premier producteur de pétrole et ….le premier consommateur :
Country Million barrels per day Share of world total
United States 20.51 20%
• Le comportement futur du conducteur américain est un facteur clé China
India
13.89
4.77
14%
5%
Russia 3.88 4%
Japan 3.79 4%
• Il reste encore beaucoup de barrils à sortir : Saudi Arabia 3.08 3%
Brazil 3.06 3%
South Korea 2.57 3%
• Régions sous-exploitées ou mal-exploitées Canada 2.53 3%
• Ralentissement dues au conflit et aux conjonctures défavorables Germany
Total top 10
2.33
60.40
2%
60%
World total 100.37
• Le critère de part de marché reste encore important pour de
1 Oilgrands producteurs,
includes crude notamment
oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels.
les pays du Moyen Orient 2
Source: International Energy Statistics, Total oil (petroleum and other liquids) consumEmbryonic Growth Mature Aging
pre -1900s 1900 - 2000 2000 - 2050? Post 2050?
Les
Discovery of International End-user switch to Low wind & PV LCOE
petroleum combustion market electricty
Storage-cost reductions
growth
First steps in E&P Natural gas displacing
Electric vehicles
activities Periods of cheap oil for generation
fantasmes?
mandatory in large cities
oil promoted
Beginnings of the Renewables sources
displacement of Aggressive CO2
refining industry penetration
wood and coal taxation
Figure 1: Oil industry maturity curve
1/ Oil @ 200$
2/ Peak Oil – No more oil in 20X0
3/ No more cars
4/ Hydrogen Airplanes
5/ What else ?Embryonic Growth Mature Aging
pre -1900s 1900 - 2000 2000 - 2050? Post 2050?
Quelques
Indicateurs
Discovery of International End-user switch to Low wind & PV LCOE
petroleum combustion market electricty
Storage-cost reductions
growth
First steps in E&P Natural gas displacing
Electric vehicles
activities Periods of cheap oil for generation
Clés?
mandatory in large cities
oil promoted
Beginnings of the Renewables sources
displacement of Aggressive CO2
refining industry penetration
wood and coal taxation
1/ % of Non-fossil Fuel-based Consumption - Quel est1:leOilbon
Figure taux
industry ? curve
maturity
Chine – 15% en 2020 et 20% en 2030 – Plus grand producteur de EV au Monde ….mais aussi un
très gros consommateur.
2/ Rate of Decarbonization or Carbon Neutral Target
* Comment L’Atteindre et Quand ? 2030 ? 2050 ?
3/ Public Policy Enforcement
* Seul moyen de changer les comportements - Shell doit baisser ses emissions de 45% sur 10 ans
/ Plus de voitures à combustion en 2030/2040 etc.
4/ LCoE : Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
* Avantage progressif à l’Hydrogène, au Solaire et à l’Éolien& storage (CCS) and batteries.
4 .3%
Wind
Solar
CCS
Que fait le
Biofuels, biomass & waste
Energy smart technologies
2.3%
1.8%
Big Oil? 1.3%
1.1%
0 .9%
0 .7%
0 .2% 0 .2% 0 .2% 0 .1% 0 .1%
ExxonMobil
1/ Plus d’investissements dans le
Marathon
Petrobras
Chevron
CNOOC
Repsol
Inpex
Shell
Equinor
Eni
Total
BP
Renewable
2/ Un accent fort sur le Solaire et le
Wind Figure 2: Disclosed low-carbon investments as a proportion of total
CAPEX (2010–Q3 2018) Source: Reuters
3/ Est-ce un vrai trend ou juste une
réponse à la pression ?
4/ Le Big Oil est-il le mieux placé pour
répondre aux problématiques de
conversion ?
5/ What else ?Quid de Fossil focus All energy
l’avenir? Global
Trading houses
Global services co.
1/ La nécessaire transformation des sociétés du BIG Oil :
Independent retailers
XXL oil co.
Special-purpose vehicles
* La pression pour être dans le renewable ? Regional Energy
Mini-majors holding
* Pression politique / sociétale
* Divergences régionales et continentales ?
Local
* Quels investissements ? Pour quels résultats ?
American drillers
2/ Les nouveaux acteurs / métiers du Pétrole
Figure 4: Oil companies of the future ecosystem
3/ Les trends :
* Que voit-on maintenant ( 2020/2021) ? Outlining opportunities for expansion
* A quoi s’attendre ?
Regardless of its chosen business model, the oil company
of the future will find that opportunities for growth and• Oil consumption
Quid de
120
Mb/d
l’avenir? 100
80
• La barre des 100 Mb/d est-elle un vieux
souvenir ?
60
• A quelle Vitesse va-t-on revenir à 80 / 60 / 40 ?
40
Rapid
• Peut-on croire à un monde sans transport de
masse à combustion, sans voitures, sans énergie
Net Zero
‘sale’ ? Et si oui à quelle échéance 20
Business-as-usual
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Business As Usual
Quid de
l’avenir?
• BUSINESS AS USUAL
++ : TROP D’ÉCONOMIES A LA TRAÎNE
-- : CONSÉQUENCES DU BLACK WEDNESDAY
• RAPID
++ : PROGRESSION DU SOLAIRE ET DE
L’EOLIEN / INVESTISSEMENTS DANS LE
RENEWABLE
-- : HARMONISATION DES ACTEURS
• NET ZERO Rapid Net Zero
++ : MODÈLES BEST PRACTICE DES NORD-
EUROPÉENS
-- : LE MODELE COÛT/BÉNÉFICE RESTE À
PROUVEREmbryonic Growth Mature Aging
pre -1900s 1900 - 2000 2000 - 2050? Post 2050?
Ce que je
Discovery of International End-user switch to Low wind & PV LCOE
petroleum combustion market electricty
Storage-cost reductions
growth
First steps in E&P Natural gas displacing
Electric vehicles
activities Periods of cheap oil for generation
mandatory in large cities
oil promoted
Beginnings of the Renewables sources
crois?
displacement of Aggressive CO2
refining industry penetration
wood and coal taxation
Figure 1: Oil industry maturity curve
1/ 3 Mondes vont co-exister ….comme pour le COVID-19 :
* Les pays en avance sur le green energy : eliminer les combustibles et surtaxer le CO2 : objectif Carbon Neutral et Oil vers 20-40%
* Les pays en conversion prônant une gestion mixte – Reduire le Oil vers 60-70%
* les pays à la traîne : encore completement dépéndantes du Oil – Scenario BAU (BP) – Business as Usual – Oil au-dessus de 80%
2/ Passage du Tout Oil au Smart Oil : les politiques publiques vont pousser à déterminer ce qui fait sens pour les économies et les populations
de facon locale :
* Il est utopique de penser energie electrique dans des pays ou les delestages sont monnaie courante et ou les distances
necessitent l’utilisation de fossiles
* Par contre, la pression accrue sur le gaspillage des energies limitées vont encourager les best practices à se vulgariser ( Ex : La
Chine avec ses 400,000 Bus electriques – 3% sur la demande mondiale)
* Le COVID-19 a permis de rationaliser de facon interessante l’utilisation de l’avion.
3/ S’eloigner des fantasmes et rester pragmatique…..pas de syndrome papier toilette !ANNEXES
At present, European majors are — Chevron has a modest renewables — Royal Dutch Shell’s low-carbon
well ahead of U.S. companies in portfolio of around 65 MW, business plans include investing
the push toward renewables and designed to serve its core oil- between $2 billion and $3 billion
related utilities.35 The U.S. oil and and gas-producing operations.39 annually in wind and solar power
gas industry’s average investment The company recently entered a generation alone, with additional
in noncore areas, including green global power purchase agreement investment dedicated to EV
energy, has been around one percent (PPA) designed to “green” its charging, hydrogen and biofuels,
of total capital expenditure to date.36 power supply, which represents a and other clean energy innovation.
It’s no surprise that U.S. companies significant advance. The company The company’s incubator, Shell
have been more conservative, given has also invested $1 billion in Ventures, invests in and partners
investor expectations and other CCUS projects in Australia and with small and medium enterprises
challenges for even the very largest Canada, and, in 2018, launched a (SMEs) to develop new technologies
players in oil and gas. However, their US$100 million Future Energy Fund and business models.41
efforts are expanding. Examples to invest in innovative technology.40
— Total now has a gross low-carbon
across the globe include: The venture capital fund has
power-generation capacity of almost
targeted EV charging, battery
— BP announced a $1 billion 9 gigawatts worldwide, including 5
technology, and direct-CO2 capture
investment in offshore wind gigawatts from renewable energies
from the air.
projects through a deal with Equinor and a target of 25 GW of renewable
in September 2020 and is looking — ExxonMobil is investing more than generation by 2025.42 At the
to expand even further in North $1 billion per year into R&D-related beginning of 2020, the company
America. The move was part of to reducing carbon emissions, won Europe’s largest EV charge-
the company’s stated target of net and the company has a biofuels point contract in the Netherlands,
zero by 2050, including increasing output goal of 10,000 b/d by 2025. partnered with Groupe PSA in a
renewable power capacity to 50 The company has also invested pilot EV battery facility, and took a 2
GW over 10 years. The company heavily in carbon capture and GW Spanish solar position.43
already has a sizeable onshore wind storage (CCS) and discloses it has
business.37 BP has also partnered a working interest in approximately
in CCUS and hydrogen projects, one-fifth of the word’s total carbon-
among others.38 capture capacity.• Disruptive energy sources: Taking early positions in
development of innovative technologies such as fusion
or hydrogen sources.
Case example: Shell New Energies Case example: Total’s commitment to renewable energy
To play its part in creating a low-carbon future, Shell has
set up its New Energies business, with projects in biofuels,
biomass, hydrogen-fueling stations, EV charging, gas-to- Convinced of the opportunities renewable energies have
liquid (GTL)/liquefied natural gas (LNG), onshore and offshore
wind, thermal and photovoltaic solar, and power distribution to offer, Total is focusing its main ambitions on solar power
and electricity supply from renewable energy sources. The
company is planning to spend between $1 billion and $2
generation, targeting production capacity of five gigawatts
billion annually in the New Energies divisions until 2020. Even
though this represents less than 1 percent of revenues, it
by 2022. Other areas of focus are wind and hydraulic power
still positions Shell as one of the largest investors behind the
“energy transition”.
generation technologies. Total also believes optimizing
Case example: Equinor New Energy Solutions and
energy storage is key to expansion of renewables, which
Energy Ventures fund
is why it has acquired Saft, a world leader in battery
Equinor is also betting on developing non-traditional sources
of energy under its New Energy Solutions division. It has
technology. A further area of interest for Total is bioenergy,
become a significant innovator in offshore wind technology
and a world leader in carbon capture and storage (CCS)
in which commercial biomass production has allowed it to
technologies. According to Equinor, its Energy Ventures
fund is one of the world’s largest corporate venture funds
produce biofuels including ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE) and
dedicated to investing in attractive and ambitious growth
companies in renewable energy; it has earmarked more than
hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) for diesel.
$200 million in total investment capital.
Insight for the executiveFREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS (FAQS)
What countries are the top producers and consum
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS (FAQS)
of oil?
The 10 largest oil1 producers and share of total world oil production2 in 20203
What countries are the top producers and consum
Country
United States
Million barrels per day
18.60
Share of world total
20%
of oil?
Saudi Arabia
Russia
11.01
10.50
12%
11%
Canada
The 10 largest oil1 producers and share 5.29of total world oil production
6% 2 in 20203
China 4.93 5%
Iraq
Country 4.16 per day
Million barrels 4% total
Share of world
United
UnitedArab Emirates
States 3.79
18.60 20%4%
Brazil
Saudi Arabia 3.78
11.01 12%4%
Iran
Russia 2.81
10.50 3%
11%
Kuwait
Canada 2.66
5.29 3%
6%
Total
Chinatop 10 67.52
4.93 72%
5%
World
Iraq total 94.24
4.16 4%
United Arab Emirates 3.79 4%
1 Brazil
Oil includes crude oil, all other petroleum
3.78 liquids, and biofuels. 4%
2 Iran 2.81of crude oil, all other petroleum
3%
Production includes domestic production liquids, biofuels, and refin
Kuwait 2.66 3%
processing
Total top 10
gain. 67.52 72%
3 Source: International Energy Statistics, Total oil (petroleum and other liquids) production, April 1, 20
World total 94.24
The
1 Oil10
includes oil1 consumers
largestcrude and shareliquids,
oil, all other petroleum of total
andworld oil consumption in 20182
biofuels.
2 Production includes domestic production of crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, biofuels, and refiner
Country Million barrels per day Share of world total
processing gain.
United States 20.51 20%
3 Source: International Energy Statistics, Total oil (petroleum and other liquids) production, April 1, 202
China 13.89 14%
India 4.77 5%
The 10 largest oil1 consumers and
Russia 3.88
share of total world oil consumption
4%
in 20182
Japan 3.79 4%
Country Million barrels per day Share of world total
Saudi Arabia 3.08 3%
United States 20.51 20%
Brazil 3.06 3%
China 13.89 14%
South Korea 2.57 3%
India 4.77 5%
Canada 2.53 3%
Russia 3.88 4%
Germany 2.33 2%
Japan 3.79 4%
Total top 10 60.40 60%
Saudi Arabia 3.08 3%
World
Brazil
total 100.37
3.06 3%
South Korea 2.57 3%
1 Oil includes crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels.
Canada 2.53 3%
2 Source: International Energy Statistics, Total oil (petroleum and other liquids) consumption, Decem
Germany 2.33 2%
Total top 10
2020. 60.40 60%
World total 100.37
Learn more:
1 Oil includes crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels.
Energy
2
Explained: Where our oil comes from
Source: International Energy Statistics, Total oil (petroleum and other liquids) consumption, Decembe
2020.
Last updated: April 1, 2021
Learn more:
Energy Explained: Where our oil comes from
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