Yearbook - 2018 Urban and Railway Transport Studies - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech
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Yearbook International 2018 Urban and Railway Transport Studies Mastère Spécialisé® de l’École des Ponts ParisTech Systèmes de Transports Ferroviaires et Urbains
Urban and Railway Transport Studies International Yearbook Encadrants à l'École des Ponts ParisTech 2018 Françoise MANDERSCHEID Experts Arnaud DAUPHIN (AFD) En collaboration avec l’AFD Hubert NOVE-JOSSERAND (ex-Banque mondiale et Systra) Mastère spécialisé® de l’École des Ponts ParisTech Systèmes de transports ferroviaires et urbains Avertissement Ces mémoires constituent un travail à visée pédagogique dans le cadre d’un diplôme universitaire et ne constituent en aucun cas une étude susceptible d’être réutilisée dans un cadre commercial ou scientifique. Son contenu n’engage que la responsabilité de ses auteurs. Warning These studies are academic works, made in an academic context. They cannot be used for commercial or scientific purposes. Their content is the sole responsibility of their authors.
Editorial Édito D epuis sa création en 1747, l’École des Ponts ParisTech a toujours donné une place de choix aux infrastructures et a ainsi formé des générations d’ingénieurs qui ont participé à la réalisation des grands projets ferroviaires du monde entier, tels que Fulgence Bienvenüe, père du métro pari- sien, François Lacôte, un des pionniers du TGV au sein de la SNCF et d’Alstom, ainsi que Jean-Marie Duthilleul, architecte des gares. Cette tradition demeure très vivante aujourd’hui puisque l’école accueille plusieurs formations dédiées aux transports et à la mobilité comme le Mastère Spécialisé® « Systèmes de transports ferroviaires et urbains », créé en 2008. La qualité et l’intérêt des travaux de nos étudiants, qui ne se dément pas année après année, nous a conduit à les réunir dans un Yearbook pour vous les faire partager. S ince its creation in 1747, École des Ponts ParisTech has always put infrastructure in the spotlight, training generations of engineers who went on to be part of major railway projects all around the world—such as Fulgence Bienvenüe, father of the metro in Paris; François Lacôte, one of the pioneers of TGV within SNCF and Alstom; as well as Jean-Marie Duthilleul, architect of numerous train stations. This tradition is still very much alive today, since the school hosts several training courses dedi- cated to transport and mobility, such as the “Railway and Urban Transport System Engineering” Advanced Master®, created in 2008. Year after year, the quality and relevance of our students' projects never waver, inspiring us to collect them in a Yearbook to share them with you. Sophie MOUGARD Sophie Mougard Directrice de l’École des Ponts ParisTech École des Ponts ParisTech’s Headmaster
du Mastère Spécialisé® L’édito de la directrice headmaster A word from the Advanced Master’s C I ’est dans le cadre du Mastère Spécialisé® « Systèmes t is for the “Urban and Railway Transport System Engineering” de transports ferroviaires et urbains » que les étudiants Advanced Master® that students have to design a transport project réalisent un projet de transport dans une ville étrangère. in a foreign city. That project consists of a feasibility study, similar to Il s’agit d’une étude de faisabilité, similaire aux études those performed in the design stage of a project by offices such as amont en phase d’émergence, que réalisent les grands Systra or Parsons. This collective study, allowing students to comple- bureaux d’études comme Systra ou Parsons. Ce travail ment one another with their different savoir-faire, is carried out in the collaboratif, faisant jouer les complémentarités des form of a short thesis. savoir-faire, prend la forme d’un mini-mémoire. This study has to develop a project that has never been made or stu- Cette étude porte sur un projet qui n’existe pas encore et qui n’a pas died before. That’s why, for the past 3 years, topics have been chosen été étudié. Ainsi, les sujets sont choisis depuis 3 ans avec l’Agence fran- together with the Agence française de développement and focused on çaise de développement et concernent des transports de masse dans mass-transit in megacities of developing countries, or countries the World les grandes mégapoles en voie de développement ou des pays que Bank helps rebuild. But the students don’t go to the towns they study. la Banque mondiale accompagne dans leur reconstruction. Mais les They make use of a large network of experts, embassies and financial étudiants ne se rendent pas sur place. Ils sollicitent le vaste réseau des institutions, online resources and... their own resourcefulness. experts, des ambassades, des institutions financières, utilisent au maxi- For the 2018 promotion, we have selected with the Agence française mum des ressources documentaires sur le net et… leur débrouillardise. de développement projects concerning three continents: Asia, Africa and Pour la promotion 2018, nous avons sélectionné avec l’Agence fran- South America. Two groups of students worked on railway subjects: one çaise de développement, des projets situés sur trois continents : l’Asie, across the Andes, between Argentina and Chile; the other on the missing l’Afrique, l’Amérique du Sud. Deux groupes d’étudiants ont travaillé sur link of the silk road, between Ankara and Tehran. The four other groups des sujets ferroviaires : l’un sur une liaison transandine entre l’Argentine had urban subjects: two about mass transit, one for Semarang in Indone- et le Chili et l’autre sur le maillon manquant de la route de la soie entre sia, the other for Hyderabad in Pakistan ; the last two on exclusive trans- Ankara et Téhéran. Les quatre autres groupes avaient des sujets urbains : port lanes: a tramway for Lusaka in Gambia and one between Taguig deux projets pour un transport de masse, l’un pour Semarang en Indo- and Makati in Philippines. nésie, l’autre pour Hyderabad au Pakistan ; deux projets de TCSP : un Their summaries are at your disposal in this Railway and Urban tramway à Lusaka en Gambie et un autre entre Taguig et Makati aux Transport Studies' Yearbook. We hope that, just like the embassies, cities Philippines. and governments asking us to circulate these studies, you will clearly see Vous pourrez en parcourir les résumés dans ce Railway and Urban how interesting they are. We wish you a pleasant read and a good trip, Transport Studies’ Yearbook. Nous espérons que, tout comme les ambas- from the Silk Road to the Andes. sades, les villes et les gouvernements qui nous demandent la diffusion de ces études, vous serez sensible à la qualité de ces travaux. En vous souhaitant bonne lecture et bon voyage, de la route de la soie à la cor- dillère des Andes, en passant par Semarang et Lusaka. Françoise MANDERSCHEID Directrice du Mastère Spécialisé® « Systèmes de transports ferroviaires et urbains » Françoise Manderscheid Françoise Manderscheid Advanced Master's Headmaster 2 3
The Advanced Master® Il était une fois le Mastère Spécialisé® Once upon a time there was the "Urban and Railway Le Mastère Spécialisé® « Systèmes de transports ferroviaires et urbains » Transport System Engineering" Advanced Master® L T e Mastère a été créé en 2008 pour pallier la pénurie d’experts he Advanced Master was created in 2008 to make up for the ferroviaires pour la RATP, la SNCF Alstom, Bombardier, Siemens, shortage of railway experts for RATP, SNCF Alstom, Bombardier, etc. Cette formation propose une vision d’ensemble du système Siemens, etc. This training course provides an overview of the ferroviaire et urbain, selon une approche multidisciplinaire, inté- railway and urban system, using a multidisciplinary approach grant les aspects techniques, économiques et règlementaires. with technical, economic and regulatory angles. It is aimed at Elle s’adresse à des professionnels ayant déjà plusieurs années professionals with several years of experience in transport. Stu- d’expérience en transport. Les étudiants y apprennent à conce- dents learn how to design, operate and maintain a variety of voir, exploiter et maintenir les différents transports guidés, qu’il s’agisse guided transport systems, including trains, subways, trams and BRT, as de trains, de métros, de tramways ou de Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), ainsi well as their infrastructure. A particular emphasis is put on mass transit, que leurs infrastructures. On insiste particulièrement sur le mass-tran- since rapid urbanization means that high-capacity transportation beco- sit dans un contexte où l’urbanisation galopante rend indispensable le mes essential to cope with congestion and pollution. recours à des modes de transport fortement capacitaires pour faire face Nearly 160 professionals teach and supervise students on collective à la congestion et à la pollution. projects. Indeed, the training course relies heavily on them: the design of Près de 160 professionnels participent à l’enseignement et enca- an infrastructure, the design of a signalling plan and the design of rolling drent les étudiants sur des projets collectifs. En effet, l’enseignement du stock. Specifically, the latter happens to be the design project for a new Mastère s’appuie sur plusieurs grands projets, notamment le tracé d’une transport system in a foreign country; the summary of these studies can be infrastructure, la conception d’un plan de signalisation et la conception read in this very publication. d’un matériel roulant. Ce dernier se trouve être le projet de conception The Advanced Master gives students the title of “International Experts d’un nouveau système de transport à l’international, dont vous pouvez in Railway and Urban Transport System Engineering”. In the same class, lire les résumés dans le présent ouvrage. there are design or maintenance engineers, operating or signalling experts, Le diplôme confère aux élèves le titre d’ « experts internationaux en systems engineers, economists, project managers… Today, the alumni systèmes de transports ferroviaires et urbains ». Se côtoient dans une form a network of 350 students in more than 20 countries. The value of même promotion ingénieurs de conception ou de maintenance, experts this network lies in the variety of student profiles and experiences. Many of en exploitation ou en signalisation, ingénieurs systèmes, économistes, them are involved in teaching and organizing visits or study tours, which chefs de projet. Aujourd’hui les anciens élèves du Mastère constituent also contribute to the vitality of the Advanced Master® and its international un réseau de 350 alumni présents dans plus de 20 pays. La richesse reputation. du réseau réside dans la variété des profils et des expériences des étu- diants. Beaucoup d’entre eux s’impliquent dans l’enseignement et l’or- ganisation de visites ou de voyages d’études qui participent aussi à la vitalité de la formation et à sa notoriété internationale. Françoise Manderscheid Françoise Manderscheid 4 5
Enseigner le ferroviaire à l’École Railway classes at the École 1832 Charles-Joseph MINARD Amédée BOMMART 1842 1852 Jacques MANIEL 1855 François JACQMIN Louis-Charles SEVENE 1867 1873 } Pierre Dominique BAZAINE-VASSEUR 1880 Jules MARTIN Charles BRICKA 1891 1899 Désiré FOUAN Extrait du Cours de chemins de fer de Pierre Dominique Bazaine-Vasseur de 1873. École nationale des ponts et chaussées, 4°23037, en ligne sur http://patrimoine.enpc.fr. Albert DESCUBES 1918 Page from Pierre Dominique Bazaine-Vasseur from 1873. 1927 André MARTINET Louis CAMBOURNAC 1940 1951 Georges CHAN Charles FEYRABEND 1961 1968 Robert BIAIS Jean ALIAS } 1972 1985 Philippe ROUMEGUERE Pascal LUPO 2003 Création du Mastère spécialisé® « Systèmes de transports ferroviaires et urbains » 2008 Birth of the Advanced Master 6 Paul BOUVAREL 2013 } Françoise MANDERSCHEID Extrait du Journal de mission en Allemagne d’Albert Petsche, Ferdinand Conesson et Louis Goury, 1884. École nationale des ponts et chaus- sées, Ms. 3153, en ligne sur http://patrimoine.enpc.fr Page from a 19th century students’ project journal 7
Table of contents Sommaire 11 Improving the Ankara- Tehran Rail Link 23 A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan 35 Design of a mass transportation system in Semarang, Java (Indonesia) 47 Feasibility study of Taguig MRT, Philippines 59 Implementing a Bus Rapid Transit system in Lusaka, Zambia 73 Reopening of a railway service between Chile and Argentina 84 La promotion 2017-2018 The Students 86 Le voyage à Shanghai The trip to Shanghai 90 La Source, diffuseur de savoirs The library 9
Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link Yann BAILLOT-NOMANT Richard BALANSARD Emma CHASSET Bertrand LAUDE Benjamin LEDUNE Marie-Rose NAWFAL 10 11
Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link C 1. Challenges & Opportunities of New Silk Roads e rapport propose une solution au goulot d’étranglement qui existe en Turquie au niveau du lac de Van sur la liaison ferroviaire entre Ankara et Téhéran, composante des nouvelles routes de la soie. The New Silk Roads concept mainly encompasses Eurasian commercial itineraries Cette situation de blocage n’empêche pas seulement les échanges écono- along railways, roads and seas (northern route through Russia, northern route through miques en provenance ou à destination des puissances émergentes de la the Arctic, southern Route through Iran and Turkey or through the Malacca Straits, Ma- région mais également les relations commerciales entre la Chine et l’Union laysia and the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits, Djibouti). It is also a Chinese project under the européenne. L’amélioration de cette liaison ferroviaire permettrait de créer name Belt Road Initiative (BRI) or One Belt One Road initiative (OBOR) and a Chinese- un corridor de passage alternatif à celui passant actuellement par la Russie. C’est dans ce contexte qu’une analyse des différents flux de trafic de marchan- driven multilateral investment bank: the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB) dises sera étudiée afin d’identifier l’intérêt du corridor sud des nouvelles created in 2015. routes de la soie. La traversée par ferry-rail du lac de Van sera présentée The bilateral trade between China and the EU has reached € 520 billion in 2016, pour mettre en évidence les faiblesses de ce chaînon manquant. Dans le but of which two thirds are imported by the EU from China and one third is exported to d’améliorer l’offre de transport à destination des chargeurs et des voyageurs, China by the EU. This volume has doubled between 2006 and 2016 and is mostly un diagnostic territorial de la région du lac de Van et au-delà sera réalisé et plusieurs itinéraires alternatifs seront proposés. Une analyse multicritères sera transported by sea, which represents a 69% modal share. The main threats identified effectuée pour établir un scénario de référence à partir duquel le système on the southern sea route through the Malacca and Bab-el-Mandeb Straits, Djibouti, sera conçu. La faisabilité technique, les principes d’exploitation et le modèle are piracy and, from China’s perspective, the presence of US and Indian navy facilities. économique de la solution proposée seront décrits en détails après quoi une Rail forwarding stands for 1% of the total amount between China and the EU, mainly description des différents jalons, acteurs et prérequis du projet sera proposée. for high-value or time to market products e.g. automotive spare parts, electronics, L’étude s’achève par la perspective de montée en charge du corridor sud et les différents leviers à disposition pour en augmenter la capacité et en faire un clothing. A 95% share of rail freight between China and the EU is forwarded on the itinéraire de fret ferroviaire d’envergure mondiale. northern route through Russia. The southern route represents a longer but interes- ting alternative to the northern route, bypassing Russia. It also makes bilateral trade Mots-clés : nouvelles routes de la soie, transport ferroviaire international de easier to and from the emerging economies of the region, Turkey and Iran, especially marchandises, Chine, Union européenne, Iran, Turquie, lac de Van manufacturing goods and raw materials. It has drawn about half of the Chinese invest- ment into OBOR infrastructure projects and is a major opportunity to develop Chinese T his study presents a solution to the existing Van Lake bottleneck in exports, especially from its inner provinces, and access raw materials in the Eurasian Turkey along the Ankara-Tehran railway, a major railway link in the One Belt One Road vision. This situation limits international trade not region. Turkey and Iran, through their national railway companies TCDD and RAI, have only between the emerging economic powers in the Middle East and Asia, but developed ambitious programs to develop their rail network and could benefit from also between China and the European Union. Improving this railway link would international freight traffic development induced by OBOR. create an alternative corridor to the existing northern route through Russia. Altogether, the southern route is expected to forward 408,000 twenty-foot equi- In this regard, an analysis of the potential railway freight traffic volumes, i.e. valent unit (TEU) in 2027, of which the authors estimate that 215,000 TEU will flow bilateral and multilateral trade, will be investigated to understand the inte- rest in developing the southern route. The Van Lake train-ferry crossing will be through the Iran-Turkey border, where the Van Lake bottleneck limits foreign trade presented to highlight this missing link. A comprehensive study of the Van Lake development. region and beyond will be conducted, and several options will be proposed to improve the transportation offer for freight and passenger customers. A multi-cri- teria analysis will be provided to elect the best option, which will be presented in terms of system design and technical feasibility. The study will then deal with the proposed railway operations organization and its business model, along with a description of the milestones, stakeholders and prerequisites of the project. Finally, the study concludes with the perspective of the demand growth on the southern route and the possible solutions to improve its capacity and make it a world-class freight corridor. Keywords: one belt one road, international railway freight transport, China, Euro- pean Union, Iran, Turkey, Van Lake 12 13
Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link Van Lake by the south (1), the second scenario bypasses the Van Lake by the north (2) and the third scenario connects the Ankara-Kars railway in Turkey to the Jolfa-Tehran in Iran, creating a railway link between Horasan, Turkey and Marand, Iran (3) further north. Based on a time and cost comparison, we have selected the scenario (1) which connects the Tatvan and Van railway stations. 3. System Design of Tatvan-Van Railway For interoperability purposes, the system design is mainly based on the features of the existing Turkish railway network. As such, a standard-gauge single track is proposed for the Tatvan-Van railway to be operated by Turkish diesel engines only. Freight wagons authorized on the new line will be adapted to customer needs: car transporters, contai- ner flat wagons, open wagons and tank wagons, while locomotives will be leased from TCDD. The system design also contains innovative features: ERTMS level 1 is proposed and reservations are made for a double track and an electrification of the railway. The proposed railway line is designed for a maximum speed of 120 km/h in plains and 80 km/h in mountain areas, with a 15% maximum gradient. The curves shall Figure 1: Railway freight volumes forwarded or expected on the New Silk Roads. Source: © Andreas Schwilling (on respect a minimal radius of 1,000 m in plains and 500 m in mountain areas. Three behalf of Roland Berger), Study: Eurasian rail corridors, September 2017, for UIC (International Union of Railways): bridges longer than 1,500 m shall be built with reinforced concrete and an extensive https://uic.org/IMG/pdf/a-schwilling-roland_berger.pdf; modified by Bertrand Laude, 2018. use of long bridge decks, with at least 8 rows of piers each. Three tunnels shall be erected from a total length ranging from 2,300 to 4,000 m with a 45 to 50 sq. m. air section, allowing future electrification if necessary, and meeting the Tunnel Interope- 2. Diagnosis and Possible Solutions for Van Lake rability Technical Specification (ITS) standards. Bottleneck As a single track, the Tatvan-Van railway will need several crossing points at Koprücük, Akdamar, Ciçekli and Bakaçik. Hot axle box detectors are also recom- The Van Lake is one of the few freight ferry-rails in the world, along with the Sassnitz mended for heavy freight and will be implemented near Koy Luca next to several 15% facilities on the Baltic Sea. The natural characteristics of the region explain the absence ramps and close to Van. The current Tatvan city station, which is an end station with of a railway link between Tatvan and Van, especially seismicity, since the Van Lake re- a turnaround to Tatvan harbour station, will be adapted to a transit station; whereas gion is contiguous to the Anatolian, Arabic and Eurasian tectonic plates. Since 1983, six the current Van city station, between the Van harbour station and the Iranian border, earthquakes from 6.4 to 7.2 on the Richter scale have been recorded in the area. The will be adapted to an end station—i.e. trains will stop there to change locomotives ground is elevated from 800 to 2,100 m and the soil around the lake is mainly metamor- and drivers, and do a turnaround. Further modifications will be implemented on the phic, sedimentary and volcanic. station premises to allow diesel and sand supply for the engines and easy turnaround The region is sparsely populated (below 1 inhabitant per square km), mostly by for the trains. No depot will be built, since locomotives and wagons will be maintained Kurds, whose wish for autonomy or even independence represents a challenge for all by their owners outside the Tatvan-Van railway premises. For performance purposes, countries in the area, especially Turkey. Bilateral relationship between Turkey and Iran authors also recommend to add a track and ballast renewal between Malatya and appear rather pragmatic and trade-driven despite political and religious antagonism Tatvan, west of the Tatvan-Van railway. in the Middle East. Based on a multi-criteria analysis, the authors of this essay have studied eight preliminary scenarios, of which three have been retained for deeper analysis. Among the three latter scenarios, which are all railway links, the first scenario bypasses the 14 15
Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link need 30 locomotives, excluding maintenance. Altogether, the freight operating company (FOC) will need 33 locomotives. We have estimated the personnel needs at 72 drivers and 16 signallers, excluding the management of the FOC. The FOC will be responsible for the train movements and wagon delivery. It will lease locomotives and wagons from a rolling stock operating company. Freight vendors will access the Tatvan-Van railway through an international freight forwarding company. Passengers will be able to travel on this line through the TCDD fare distri- bution system. The rail network Infrastructure Operator (IO) will own the new railway and as such be responsible for its maintenance and access through the selling of train paths to the FOC and TCDD. The IO will also need to add five crossing points on the section between Malatya and Tatvan in Baskil, Camliyurt, Mesedali, Demirkapi and Kirik so that freight trains running in opposite directions can pass each other, and so that passenger trains can pass freight trains if necessary. West to Malatya, other Turkish freight train companies will be in charge of the wagons, whereas RAI will be responsible for train operations in Iran. Authors also consider that the multila- teral agreement regarding wagon ownership and administrative and border controls of freight trains along the southern route will be signed when trains will start to run on Figure 2: Proposed Route for a New Rail Link between Tatvan and Van. Source: "Map of Lake Van" © Dogu Ari, 2015, the Tatvan-Van railway. This agreement will allow freight wagons to run from China to CC-BY-SA (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Akhtamar_Island_on_Lake_Van_with_the_Armenian_Cathe- Turkey and backwards with no need to change wagons and transfer freight at national dral_of_the_Holy_Cross.jpg; modified par Yann Baillot-Nomant and Marie-Rose Nawfal), modified by the students. borders. 4. Operations Organization of Malatya-Van Railway The services operated on the Tatvan-Van railway will be part of the Malatya-Van railway operations. Indeed, Malatya is an important railway hub in eastern Turkey, allowing westward connections to Ankara, Istanbul and beyond, as well as southward connec- tions to Adana and the major port of Mersin. Considering the railway traffic forecast and the empty trains circulating eastward due to an asymmetric flow of goods, authors have considered 6 freight trains each day in each direction, i.e. 3,600 trains every year. This means a 295,000 TEU capacity, i.e. 38% more than the total capacity needed for 2027. In addition, 3 passenger trains will be operated each day in each direction, stop- ping at Malatya, Elazig, Mus, Tatvan and Van. Considering this level of service, three DE36000 locomotives will be necessary to pull the heavy freight trains. This tractive power is required to overcome rolling resistance during starting motion, and to keep an average speed of 60 km/h on 15% ramps. The three units connect at the head of the train through automatic coupling, which saves time and money. Diesel engines need a single driver, but trains will be operated with two drivers to Figure 3: Stakeholders of the Proposed Tatvan-Van Railway. Source: © Emma Chasset and Yann Baillot-Nomant, 2018. meet the regulatory requirements in Turkey. Additional staff will operate in Malatya, Tatvan and Van stations to sort trains and wagons. The operational programme will 16 17
Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link 5. Financing of Tatvan-Van Railway and supply the whole system (mainly track and signalling sub systems) including the The Tatvan-Van railway project is estimated at € 3 billion, of which € 2 billion for the appropriate studies in their field of expertise. The PMC will eventually supervise the design and build works, € 0.3 billion for the system supply and integration, and € 0.7 contractors so that contract requirements are met to ensure a smooth system integra- billion for the related engineering works between Malatya and Tatvan. The necessary tion and delivery to the project owner. The project is expected to last an estimate of investment shall be provided by the Turkish national budget for a 40% share, an AIIB 13 years, including 1 year of preparation of investment agreements and PMC arrange- loan for a 30% share with interest at 2.5%, a European Investment Bank (EIB) loan for a ments, 5 years of project studies, 5 years of engineering works and equipment supply 20% share with interest at 2%, and a direct investment of the Qatar Investment Authority and installing, and 1 year of system testing and integration. (QIA) for a 10% share. AIIB and EIB loans can easily be explained since the southern route will create an alternative to the northern route and serve both Chinese and Euro- pean interests. Qatar being the second Asian investor in Turkey explains the QIA share as well as the logistical support granted by Turkey to isolated Qatar during the 2017- 2018 diplomatic crisis with the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members. The IO managing the Turkish rail network will be responsible for maintaining the new single track and all related infrastructure assets between Tatvan and Van. As such, the average operational expenditures are estimated at € 3.5 million per annum, covered by the selling of access rights to TCDD, the passenger train operating company, and to the new FOC running between Tatvan and Van. For that purpose, the IO will price passenger train paths at € 3 per train-km, and freight train paths at € 6 per train-km (compared to a € 8 rate per train-km through Getlink). The FOC operating trains between Malatya and Van will bear an estimate of € 46.5 million operational expenditures per annum, of which € 23.4 million of energy costs, € 12.9 million of train access charges, € 5.4 million of engine leasing costs and € 1 million of personnel costs. The FOC will forward an average load of 214,684 TEU per annum with a rate of € 227 per unit and show an average operational result of € 2.3 million per annum. TCDD will operate passenger trains at its own commercial risk Figure 4: Project Management Organization for the Proposed Tatvan-Van Railway. Source: © Emma Chasset and between Ankara and Van. Yann Baillot-Nomant, 2018. The Net Present Value (NPV) of the project is estimated at € 853 million for both freight and passenger activities, whereas the NPV is negative when calculated sepa- Among the few project challenges identified, the financing arrangements seem rately for freight or passenger activities. These results mean that the balance between decisive to secure the project. It encompasses bilateral agreements between the the project investment and its socio-economic effect is only positive when combined Republic of Turkey and the AIIB on the one hand, between Turkey and the EIB on the for both activities. As such, the internal rate of return is estimated at 8%. other hand, along with an investment contract framework between the Turkish rail network IO and QIA. Another key issue involves a multilateral agreement between the States crossed by the southern route to smooth administrative and border controls 6. Project Organization of Tatvan-Van Railway on freight trains, especially between Turkey and Iran. Eventually, the industry will play The Turkish rail network IO will be the project owner. As such, it will initiate regulato- a major role to ensure the success of the Tatvan-Van railway, including a locomotive ry and environmental procedures. A project management company (PMC) will assist construction programme by TCDD to meet the FOC operational needs, a range of the project owner and conduct the detailed design and build studies, as well as the interface agreements between the FOC and TCDD to arrange a smooth operational systems studies. It will also tender the engineering works and rail equipment supply transition in Malatya and between the FOC and RAI to do equally so in Van. contracts on behalf of the project owner, who will be the sole signee of those contracts along with the contractors themselves. The contractors will lead engineering works 18 19
Improving the Ankara-Tehran Rail Link 7. Next Steps to Improve the Attractiveness of the southern route The authors have designed the Tatvan-Van railway as one of the many projects which could contribute to the development of the southern route. Indeed, further actions could be taken from west to east in order to develop its rail capacity. Major projects west of Malatya include the future running of freight trains through the Marmaray tun- nel below the Bosphorus in Istanbul and the future rail and road bridge bypassing Is- tanbul further north. The extension of the high-speed line from Ankara to Sivas towards Malatya is also an opportunity for freight trains to run on the conventional line. The conventional line in Turkey could be electrified and adapted for double track in the fu- ture and link the Tabriz-Tehran and Tehran-Turkmenistan double track electrified lines in Iran. Further east, a long-term standard gauge line project between China and Iran running through Central Asia could end the double break-of-gauge in this part of the southern route. On a mid-term basis, trains could be adapted with variable gauge wheelsets when the technology is ready. Further south, the development of railway capacity in Pakistan and India appears to be an interesting opportunity including stan- dard gauge and freight-only railway projects. Beyond railway capacity, the reinforcement of railway freight competitiveness is a major challenge that the industry needs to address. Express, fast or high-speed freight is a new concept that could bring attractiveness to New Silk Roads e.g. the reorientation of the Moscow-Kazan high-speed project for both freight and passenger purposes with a major Chinese support. The eventual rebalancing of freight flows is a major objective for freight train companies operating on the New Silk Roads to decrease the price per TEU and compete more efficiently with air and sea cargo. Hence, the demand growth and the possible solutions to improve its capacity and competitiveness create a broad range of opportunities to make the southern route a world-class railway freight corridor. 20
A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan Youcef ALLOUI Virginie BASTIER Ophélie TISON Nicolas LOREILLE Andrea PAOLI 22 23
A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan D epuis l’édification des premières cités, la mobilité a toujours été Introduction un élément-clé, venant tant structurer et dynamiser le territoire Pakistan is the 5th most populated country in the world with over 207 million inhabitants. qu’influencer le quotidien des individus. Du fait de la croissance The staggering increase of the urban population generates multiple traffic challenges démographique et des contraintes territoriales, les déplacements en zone urbaine posent souvent de réels problèmes auxquels les élus such as pollution, congestion and collisions. To cope with these issues, mobility has locaux peinent à faire face. C’est le cas à Hyderâbâd, huitième ville la become a major priority for Pakistan's greatest cities, each of them gradually acquiring plus peuplée du Pakistan avec 1,7 millions d’habitants, dépourvue à ce a Mass Rapid Transit system in order to structure their territory. jour d’un réseau de transport public urbain en capacité de répondre à As Hyderabad enters this dynamic, the goal of this project is to study the feasibility la demande de mobilité de ses citoyens. Reposant sur un diagnostic of a mass transport system on its territory. territorial, une étude de flux et une analyse des caractéristiques tech- The objective of this project is defined based on the city's current diagnosis niques associées, l’étude de pré-faisabilité d’insertion d’un système concerning the geographic, environmental, socio-demographic, economic, admi- de transport de masse adapté aux besoins actuels et futurs préconise nistrative and political contexts, as well as the transport network itself and its varied l’implantation d’un réseau en plusieurs étapes. La première consiste uses. This diagnosis was the main source of information that helped define the desired à insérer une ligne de BHNS bi-articulé parcourant la ville d’ouest en paths and the development of an origin/destination matrix, an indispensable tool for est. traffic modelling. Different scenarios were established and the multi-criteria analysis for each of them led to a preferred line route. The transport demand was estimated Mots-clés : BHNS, transport, pré-faisabilité, Hyderâbâd, Pakistan on this line using the modelling software VISUM of PTV, which allowed us to choose the BRT. The description of this mass transit project includes the network sizing, the rolling stock choice, the technical characteristics of the system, the operation of the line, its E ver since the building of the first cities, mobility has always been maintenance, the insertion constraints, the civil works’ conditions of realization, the a key element in structuring the territory, with a strong influence design and the signature of the system. This report also includes the cost of asses- over the daily lives of individuals. In areas of demographic growth sing the socio-economic and financial profitability of the project, associated with some and increasing urbanization, travel often is a real challenge with which planning elements. local officials and public authorities struggle to cope. This is the case in Constraints raised by the territory analysis highlight the challenges of our project Hyderabad, the eighth most populous city in Pakistan, with 1.7 million for developing a reliable sustainable transport system in Hyderabad. Our goal is to inhabitants: to this day, no urban public transport network has been able to meet the current mobility demand. Based on a territorial diagnosis, improve access to activity hubs by connecting them to the existing network, so that a mobility flow analysis and an analysis of the associated technical an efficient modal share transfer can help resolve the pollution and traffic jam issues in characteristics, this pre-feasibility study (for the creation of a mass the city. To reach this goal, it will be necessary to integrate the transport system within transport system able to respond to current and future transport needs) the city development, establish a dedicated financing plan, control the investment recommends the establishment of a transportation network in several cost, and support local actors. steps, the first being the insertion of a bi-articulated BHNS line running through the city from west to east. 1. Territorial diagnosis Keywords: BRT, transport, pre-feasibility, Hyderabad, Pakistan The city of Hyderabad is located in the province of Sindh, in southern Pakistan. After Karachi, Hyderabad is the second most populated city in the province, with 1.7 million inhabitants. Characterized by a flat landscape and desert climate, the city is subject to various environmental threats such as floods (especially during the monsoon period), air pollution and water contamination. 24 25
A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan The population of Hyderabad has a growth rate of 3% and could exceed the The road network supports 80% of the passenger and freight transport demands threshold of 3 million inhabitants by 2050. This rapid growth combines with an uneven (the remaining 20% are divided between rail, fluvial and air transport). The main road population distribution to make mobility a major challenge. Due to the absence of an network (N-5, N55 and M-9) is in good condition, but heavily congested (interurban effective urban planning policy (master plan), the first increase in population density buses entering the center contribute to the worsening of traffic). The secondary occurred in the old city center, followed by the neighborhoods of Latifabad and Qasi- network includes small, narrow city roads that are not properly maintained, lacking mabad. The last spike in population growth happened in the periphery of Hyderabad, sidewalks and road signs, which can lead to hazardous situations. To expand their creating a low density urban sprawl which is detrimental to any meaningful transport roads, Hyderabad invested heavily in that secondary network and created seven new strategy and lacking the necessary infrastructures. overpasses. However, their efforts were thwarted due to the steady growth in traffic. Since formal urban public transport does not exist in Hyderabad, the high rate of individual transportation (72% for motorbike and personal car) further supports the mobility demand of its residents. Informal public transport use, by those who cannot afford to own a car or a motorbike, is mainly ensured by private car, taxi or rickshaw (popular and low cost for a distance lower than 5 km). The territorial diagnosis, issues, and objectives to which the mass transport project endeavors to respond can be summarized as follows: Main points Challenges Project Goals and Objectives Heavy Pollution Environmental An environment-friendly system of transport Lack of accessibility to the AccessibilityEmployment Interconnections between main clusters of attractiveness residential areas and activity hubs Degraded and congested Alternative modes to indivi- An efficient public transport road networkAbsence of a dual motorized transport formal public transit system Safety and security transport Security and safety Reliable and safe public trans- problems port system Limited governance structure A structured local transport A well-thought global and network optimised network Table 1: Conclusions of the territorial analysis 2. Flow modelling (four-step model) through Visum Thus far, no flow model or traffic study has been made for Hyderabad. Therefore, a Figure 1: Hyderabad population density estimations. Source: © Virginie Bastier and Ophélie Tison, 2018, with Qgis. four-step model was developed using the PTV Visum software with the support of PTV The railway network serves Hyderabad by two stations: Hyderabad (center) and group. Relying on justified hypotheses, the flow model aims to estimate the mobility Kotri (west). Hyderabad station is an important junction (2nd of Sindh after Karachi), flows in 2018 and 2030. with roughly 17 daily stops for passenger trains. One airport serves Hyderabad with The four-step model allowed us to build a model step by step with internally two flights per week (Islamabad and Lahore). collected data, geographical approximation of the main mobility flow, and the possi- 26 27
A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan bility to compare several scenarios (through variation of socio-economic parame- 3. Network and system of transport’s characteristics ters inputs and the creation of the BRT line). Visum scenario manager allowed us 3.1. Description of the route to construct a base scenario (2018) and compare it with multiple possible scenarios (2030, 2030 with BRT line). The layout of the Green Line has been refined to take into account the available foot- The four-step model relies on the inter-zone flow of people, with each zone consi- prints and street types. Cross profiles were made in each street, respecting the inser- dered as an emitter and receptor of flow. The perimeter has been divided in 73 zones. tion principles and development recommended by French authorities such as CERTU1, The desired path per transport mode showed that the most loaded public transport but adapted to territory specifications. (PuT) flow was from the west area to Hyderabad center (3,700 pphpd) during rush hour. The assignment analysis helped us define the optimal route for the transport network by the date of commission in 2030. Although several scenarios were consi- dered, the multi-criteria analysis led to a west/east route (that will be named "Green Line") with a forecast of 5,000 pphpd (PuT) during rush hour in 2030. Figure 3: Example of a new road layout. Source: © Youcef Alloui and Nicolas Loreille, 2018, with Streemix. The average distance between stations is 500 m. The first implementation plan has been defined according to the hypothesis on services, which may be reworked in later phases with local authorities. 3.2. Rolling stock’s main characteristics In order to cope with the urban mobility and environmental issues as far as 2030, a 24 m long bi-articulated BRT with a Natural Gas Vehicle (NGV) and/or electrical motorization is recommended. Indeed, with a rate of six passengers per m² and a 2.55 m width, the resulting bus capacity will be able to handle the expected number of passengers per Figure 2: Mobility public transport demands – 2030. Source: © OpenStreetMap contributors; modified by Andrea hour and per direction (pphpd) during peak time (5,500) with a 20% margin in 2030. Paoli 2018, with PTV Visum. Specific equipment is embedded within this system to offer a high quality of service. For example, a static and dynamic passenger information system, heating and cooling sys- In regard to the territorial diagnosis and the level of traffic expected in 2030, it tem, easy access for persons with reduced mobility (low floor), 60 seats (28% of the total has been decided to set up a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) line. However, all the technical capacity), and CCTV will help increase the quality of service. Dedicated compartments characteristics of a tramway will be taken into account (platform width, lift, multitu- for women are suggested as well, for safety reasons. Since the insertion of a transpor- bular dimensioning...) to allow future evolution into this mode in a more distant future. tation system is a strong element of identity of a city, and the visual appearance of the 1. A public administrative institution under the supervision of the Ministry for an Ecological and Solidary Transition. 28 29
A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan system influences its perception and attractiveness, specific attention will be paid to mended, implying that the maintenance criteria are to be included in the conception the design of the BRT, and particularly to the choice of its visual identity, as well as the phase of the project. During the operation period, maintenance at three levels is de- arrangement of the stations and the signage system. fined for each component of the system (infrastructures, stations, rolling stock as well as equipment). The three levels include routine maintenance, corrective maintenance, and systematic and condition-based maintenance. 3.3. Operation To insure good maintenance and to store the rolling stock fleet, two depot sites To insure optimal efficiency of the transport system, a priority at the crossroads with with maintenance facilities are scheduled to be built at the end of the line. As for traffic lights will be set up, as well as an operation for passenger information support operations, the maintenance operations require a trained staff, especially when it system (OSS) due to the technological advances of smartphones, in conjunction with a comes to the rolling stock. dedicated application on board of the vehicle that will be monitored in an operational command center (OCC) by trained staff. This system aims to keep passengers infor- med, safe, and entertained all along their journey. Additionally, specific road signaling 3.5. Civil engineering works as well as physical barriers will be deployed in order to forbid pedestrians from entering The building of the BRT line requires consequent, large-scale construction: road work, the BRT lane. stations construction, sites of depot and maintenance facilities. The chosen executive Thanks to these technical elements, the expected commercial speed is 24 km/h. conditions of building work and the construction phases are configured to limit nega- The operation is defined through the indicators below: tive impacts and to maximize quality of service. The principles of conception of the construction work are as follows: Characteristics Values • upkeep of the road traffic as much as possible during work; Length of the line 13.4 km • upkeep of the access to shops and houses; Round trip 27 min (including 30s of parking time at station) • work during daytime to avoid noise pollution during night time. Traffic used to dimension the transport offer 65,000 passengers per day The work phases will be spaced out in order not to block the entire city simul- (with 30% of margin) taneously. Temporary traffic routes will be established. A particular attention will be Frequency at peak time 2 min paid to the preliminary steps, such as the rerouting of existing networks and the Frequency at off-peak time 4 min property acquisitions that are traditionally responsible for delays in planning. Operating times From 05:00 AM to 10:00 PM(conformed to existing BRT networks in Pakistan) 3.6. Costs and planning of the project Type of servicing Stop at each station (Omnibus) The creation of this new system and network requires a clear institutional framework Number of vehicles in operation at peak time 34 and the presence of a transport authority responsible for the regulation as well as the Number of operational reserve’s vehicles 2 pricing policy management. This institution’s goal is to set up a strong public transport policy (i.e. parking policy). Currently, the fare of a rickshaw ride is between 10 to 15 Number of maintenance reserve’s vehicles 4 rupees. Based on a benchmark on transport ticket prices and average income, the Table 2: Operational characteristics recommended price of a ride on the Green Line is fixed to 20 Rs (€ 0.14). Using that hypothesis, traffic estimations, rolling stock features and civil engineering works, the gain was put in regard with the estimated infrastructure and rolling stock costs. The 3.4. Maintenance socio-economic study of the project up to 2030 believes that the estimated net present The maintenance of the whole system and network is crucial, since it conditions its du- value is 67 million euros, and the associated internal rate of return (IRR) is about 28%. rability and life expectancy. A global strategy that will ensure lower total cost is recom- The project is therefore judged profitable. 30 31
A Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Hyderabad, Pakistan The creation of the Green Line is planned up to 2030 as follows: Steps 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Preparation and brief Concept and developed design Technical design Infrastructure and system tender file and action Rolling stock tender file and action Network tilting Civil engineering works Rolling stock reception Staff training Tests Trial run Commissioning * Table 3: General planning Conclusion Pakistan is currently facing several major challenges. The demographic explosion and the densification of the urban areas have put a strain on basic services management. 23% of the inhabitants are living below the poverty line. Pakistani urban planning puts the accent on the urban sprawl and favors the trans- formation of cities into expansive car-friendly suburban areas. Likewise, in Hyderabad, low-density suburban areas and important residential complexes are thriving. This model discourages the city center development of and creates a dependence on motorized modes, thus contributing to congestion and pollution. This pre-feasibility study recommends an institutional reform and the establish- ment of new urban governance principles. Additionally, a sustainable and environ- mental-friendly system as well as a network of transport will be profitable to the whole population. The BRT Green Line represents an opportunity to develop urban public transport in Hyderabad to respond to the 2030 demand. This study shows the neces- sity for the city to set up an efficient public transport system in order to interconnect the different areas of the city, in which the Green Line is just the first piece of the puzzle. 32
Design of a mass transportation system in Semarang, Java (Indonesia) Marouan BENHAMMADI Julien DRU Anne LAMBERT Lalaina RAVONIMBOLA Thomas RICHERT 34 35
Design of a mass transport system in Semarang Design of a mass transport system in Semarang A vec une superficie de 373 km² et une population de 1,6 millions Introduction d’habitants, Semarang est la cinquième ville d’Indonésie et la With more than 17,000 islands situated between the Indian and Pacific Ocean, the Re- capitale de la province de Java Centrale. Elle est située dans public of Indonesia is the largest archipelago in the world. It covers about 1,904,569 km² une zone côtière hautement vulnérable aux risques d’inondations couplés à des phénomènes de haute marée. La congestion routière of land and is home to over 258 million people. Traffic congestion is one of the major est aussi un problème majeur à Semarang. Elle s’explique par une problems faced by Indonesian cities. To address this issue, the government is focusing forte croissance démographique et le développement de l’activité on the development of mass transportation projects. The Indonesian Ministry of Trans- industrielle et commerciale. Puisque le système de transport en place portation has launched several major projects such as the Jakarta Light Rail Transit n’est pas efficace et sous-dimensionné, les habitants se tournent vers project in 2017, the Surabaya MRT, and a similar project in Bandung. l’utilisation de véhicules particuliers. C’est dans ce contexte que nous This paper focuses on Semarang, the capital of the province of Central Java; with proposons la mise en place d’un nouveau mode de transport. Après a total area of 373.78 km² and a population of approximately 1.65 million, it is the fifth l’analyse des centres d’intérêt et des flux de déplacement, un système most populous city in the whole of Indonesia. Situated on the northern coast of Java de transport aérien de type VAL sera proposé. Des études de faisa- Island, Semarang is currently experiencing rapid population growth coupled with an bilité technique et financière appuient l’intérêt de ce nouveau projet. expansion of its urban area, with a devastating impact on traffic. General overview information will be presented along with a diagnosis of the Mots-clés : Semarang, étude de transport, VAL, faisabilité technique, current situation in Semarang. It will be followed by an analysis of the current transpor- faisabilité financière tation system, based on a forecast of population volume, in order to create a proposi- tion for a new transportation system with full financial viability. 1. Diagnosis of the current situation A major city in northern Indonesia, Semarang covers a total area of 373 km² and has a population of approximately 1.6 million people. Semarang spreads over two cities and twenty-six districts. Below are listed the three This city is highly vulnerable to floods due to heavy rains, coupled main diagnoses of the current situation, on which our project is based. with high tides phenomena. Road congestion is a major problem, which has increased due to a rapid growth in industry and trade activities, coupled with local population increase. Semarang possesses a Bus 1.1. Demographic and hydrological diagnosis Rapid Transit network which is currently both underused and undersized. The city’s trading activities were first developed by the Dutch authorities; it has been This study seeks to determine why Semarang’s citizens opt to commute the province capital since 1950. The increase in population began in 1970 and has been by other means. In order to solve those congestion issues, we propose a new transportation system to encourage residents to reduce the use of exponential ever since. The 2010 census shows a growth rate of 1.43% for Semarang private vehicles. The proposed Light Rail Transit system serves the prin- against 0.9% for the rest of the country. cipal transit axes and major places of interest. To support this project, we The Semarang population has increased from 1.4 million in 2005 to 1.65 million also present technical feasibility and financial viability analyses. in 2017. This growth can be attributed to the influx of people from the hinterland and suburbs area, drawn to the urban center to find job opportunities and better life condi- Keywords: Semarang, LRT, technical feasibility, financial study tions. Before 1970, statistics show that 75% of the population lived in rural areas, against 25% in the urban center. After 1970, the Indonesian government launched an industrial policy which accelerated the rural exodus. By 2015, the rural and urban populations were roughly matched in numbers, which represented a considerable change for the city of Semarang. Following the establishment of a government agency, a university campus and industries outside the urban center, most inhabitants now choose to live in the suburbs. 36 37
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