IWF würdigt robuste Schweizer Wirtschaft und unterstützt wirtschaftspolitischen Kurs

IWF würdigt robuste Schweizer Wirtschaft und
unterstützt wirtschaftspolitischen Kurs
Bern, 26.09.2016 - Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) erwartet dank der hohen
Widerstandskraft und Anpassungsfähigkeit der Schweizer Wirtschaft eine anhaltende Erholung der
Schweizer Konjunktur. Die Experten des IWF empfehlen grundsätzlich die Weiterführung des geld-
und haushaltspolitischen Kurses und raten nur zu punktuellen Anpassungen. Sie unterstützen auch
die bereits eingeleiteten Strukturreformen. Potenzielle Risiken stammen weiterhin von den
internationalen Finanzmärkten und von Entwicklungen im Inland.

Die Widerstandskraft der Schweizer Wirtschaft nach der starken Aufwertung des Frankens ist der
hohen Flexibilität der Unternehmen und des Arbeitsmarktes zu verdanken. Gemäss vorläufigen
Erkenntnissen aus dem jüngsten Länderexamen des IWF dürfte die konjunkturelle Erholung in der
Schweiz nach der starken Aufwertung des Frankens zu Beginn von 2015 an Schwung gewinnen und
1,5 Prozent für das laufende Jahr und 1,75 Prozent in der mittleren Frist erreichen. Dies ist auch auf
die expansive Geldpolitik zurückzuführen, die zu einer gewissen Abschwächung des Frankens geführt
hat. Auch der Abwärtsdruck auf die Preise hat laut IWF abgenommen. Der Franken ist aus Sicht des
IWF aber noch immer moderat überbewertet.

Risiken für die Konjunktur orten die Experten des IWF in einer nachlassenden Dynamik des weltweiten
Handels, in einem erneuten Anstieg der Finanzmarktvolatilität, in den Unsicherheiten, die im
Zusammenhang mit der Umsetzung der Masseneinwanderungs-initiative aus den
Wirtschaftsbeziehungen mit der EU einhergehen, sowie in den Immobilien- und Hypothekarmärkten.

Die geldpolitische Strategie der SNB mit Negativzinsen und punktuellen Interventionen auf dem
Devisenmarkt hat sich aus Sicht des IWF bewährt. Der Währungsfonds sieht beide Instrumente als
effektiv gegen eine zu starke Aufwertung des Frankens und damit gegen die negative Inflation. Er
empfiehlt jedoch zu prüfen, wie diese Instrumente noch besser aufeinander abgestimmt werden
können.

Der Währungsfonds unterstützt grundsätzlich den haushaltspolitischen Kurs des Bundes. Er stellt im
Bereich der Haushaltspolitik fest, dass in den Rechnungsabschlüssen die Ausgaben des Bundes
regelmässig tiefer liegen als die gemäss der Schuldenbremse budgetierten Werte. Der IWF erwägt, ob
Ausgabenunterschreitungen im Folgejahr nachgeholt werden könnten. Die Finanzüberschüsse auf
Bundesebene tragen in der Schweiz zu einer Reduktion der öffentlichen Verschuldung bei.

Der IWF begrüsste die Inkraftsetzung einiger Reformen zur Stärkung der Stabilität des Finanzsektors,
namentlich bei der Kapitalausstattung der Banken, den Vorhaben zur Regulierung sowie im Rahmen
der Finanzmarktaufsicht. Potentielle, durch die Tiefzinslage bedingte Finanzsektorrisiken müssen aus
Sicht des Währungsfonds überwacht und wenn möglich reduziert werden. Der IWF empfiehlt
insbesondere, die Entwicklung und Konzentration der Forderungen von Finanzinstitutionen auf dem
Hypothekarmarkt und im Immobiliensektor trotz leichter Abkühlung weiterhin aufmerksam zu
beobachten.

Schliesslich unterstützt der IWF wichtige gegenwärtige Reformprojekte der Schweiz. So erachtet er
die Verabschiedung der Reform der Altersvorsorge als notwendig zur Wahrung der finanziellen
Tragfähigkeit des Vorsorgesystems. Auch die Unternehmenssteuerreform III sei trotz der erwarteten

Mindereinnahmen im Steuerbereich positiv, indem klare vorhersehbare steuerliche Bedingungen für
alle Unternehmen in der Schweiz geschaffen werden, bei gleichzeitiger Wahrung der internationalen
Wettbewerbsfähigkeit.

Die Delegation des IWF hat das diesjährige Länderexamen vom 15. bis 26. September 2016 in Bern
und Zürich durchgeführt. Die regelmässige Beurteilung der Wirtschafts- und Finanzlage seiner
Mitgliedsstaaten im Rahmen der so genannten Artikel-IV Konsultation ist ein Kernelement der
wirtschaftspolitischen Überwachungstätigkeit des IWF.

Adresse für Rückfragen

Anne Césard, Kommunikation Staatssekretariat für internationale Finanzfragen SIF
Tel. +41 58 462 62 91 , anne.cesard@sif.admin.ch

Herausgeber

Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement
http://www.efd.admin.ch l

Le FMI apprécie la solidité de l’économie suisse
et soutient la politique économique du pays
Berne, 26.09.2016 - Le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) s’attend, en raison de la grande capacité
de résistance et d’adaptation de l’économie suisse, à une reprise durable de la conjoncture. Les
experts du FMI conseillent de poursuivre la politique monétaire et budgétaire en y apportant
quelques légères modifications. Ils soutiennent également les réformes structurelles qui ont déjà
été engagées. La situation sur les marchés financiers internationaux et les évolutions au niveau
national continuent de présenter certains risques.

La capacité de résistance de l’économie suisse à la forte appréciation du franc est attribuable à la
grande souplesse des entreprises et du marché du travail. Selon les conclusions préliminaires du récent
examen effectué par le FMI, la reprise économique de la Suisse après la forte appréciation du franc au
début de 2015 devrait prendre de la vigueur et la croissance s’établir à 1,5 % en 2016 et à 1,75 % à
moyen terme. Cela est aussi dû à la politique monétaire expansive, qui a contribué à un certain
affaiblissement du franc. Selon le FMI, la pression à la baisse sur les prix a diminué et le franc est
encore modérément surévalué.

Les experts du FMI estiment que le fléchissement du commerce international, l’instabilité accrue des
marchés financiers, les incertitudes liées à l’incidence de la mise en œuvre de l’initiative contre
l’immigration de masse sur les relations économiques avec l’Union européenne ainsi que la situation
sur les marchés immobilier et hypothécaire sont susceptibles d’entraver l’évolution favorable de la
conjoncture.

Selon le FMI, la stratégie adoptée par la Banque nationale suisse (BNS) en matière de politique
monétaire, à savoir l’application de taux négatifs et les interventions ponctuelles sur le marché des
devises, a fait ses preuves. Le FMI considère qu’il s’agit de deux instruments efficaces pour lutter contre
la trop forte appréciation du franc et, partant, contre l’inflation négative.

Le FMI soutient en principe la politique budgétaire de la Confédération. À cet égard, il constate que
les dépenses inscrites dans les comptes de la Confédération sont souvent inférieures aux montants
budgétisés conformément aux exigences du frein à l’endettement. Il propose d’envisager la possibilité
de reporter les ressources budgétaires non utilisées sur l’exercice suivant. Les excédents financiers
réalisés au niveau fédéral contribuent en Suisse à la réduction de la dette publique. Il recommande
toutefois d'envisager de coordonner davantage ces instruments.

Le FMI a salué l’entrée en vigueur de plusieurs réformes visant à renforcer la stabilité du secteur
financier, notamment en ce qui concerne la dotation en fonds propres des banques, les projets de
réglementation ou la surveillance des marchés financiers. Selon lui, il convient de surveiller et si
possible de réduire les risques potentiels que le bas niveau des taux d’intérêt fait peser sur le secteur
financier. Il recommande en particulier de continuer à observer attentivement l’évolution et la
concentration des créances des institutions financières sur le marché hypothécaire et dans le secteur
immobilier, malgré le léger ralentissement dans ce domaine.

Enfin, le FMI soutient les importants projets de réformes menés actuellement par la Suisse. Il estime
que l’adoption de la réforme de la prévoyance vieillesse est nécessaire pour assurer la solidité
financière du système de prévoyance. De même, il juge positive la troisième réforme de l’imposition

des entreprises, malgré la baisse prévue des recettes fiscales, car cette réforme crée des conditions
fiscales clairement prévisibles pour toutes les entreprises en Suisse tout en préservant la compétitivité
internationale.

Cette année, la délégation du FMI a effectué l’examen de la Suisse du 15 au 26 septembre 2016 à
Berne et à Zurich. L’évaluation régulière de la situation économique et financière des pays membres
dans le cadre des consultations au titre de l’article IV est au cœur de l’activité de surveillance du FMI.

Adresse pour l'envoi de questions

Anne Césard, Communication du Secrétariat d'Etat aux questions financières internationales SFI
Tél. +41 58 462 62 91 , anne.cesard@sif.admin.ch

Auteur

Département fédéral des finances
http://www.dff.admin.ch l

Il FMI apprezza la robusta economia svizzera e
sostiene la linea della politica economica
Berna, 26.09.2016 - Grazie all’elevata capacità di resistenza e di adattamento dell’economia
svizzera, il Fondo monetario internazionale (FMI) prevede una solida ripresa della congiuntura
svizzera. In linea di principio gli esperti del FMI raccomandano di proseguire la politica monetaria e
di bilancio adottata e consigliano di apportare solo alcuni adeguamenti mirati. Inoltre, sostengono
le riforme strutturali già avviate. I potenziali rischi continuano ad essere determinati dai mercati
finanziari internazionali e dagli sviluppi nel contesto nazionale.

La capacità di resistenza dell’economia svizzera dopo il forte apprezzamento del franco è attribuibile
all’elevata flessibilità delle imprese e del mercato del lavoro. In base ai risultati provvisori della recente
valutazione della Svizzera effettuata dal FMI, la ripresa congiunturale in Svizzera dovrebbe prendere
slancio e raggiungere l’1,5 per cento nell’anno in corso e l’1,75 per cento a medio termine. Ciò è
dovuto anche alla politica monetaria espansiva che ha causato un relativo indebolimento del franco. Il
FMI ritiene che anche la spinta al ribasso dei prezzi sia diminuita, ma che il franco continui ad essere
moderatamente sopravvalutato.

Secondo gli esperti del FMI i rischi congiunturali sono rappresentati da un rallentamento della
dinamica del commercio mondiale, da un nuovo aumento della volatilità dei mercati finanziari, dalle
incertezze nei rapporti commerciali con l’UE legate all’attuazione dell’iniziativa popolare «Contro
l’immigrazione di massa», e dai mercati immobiliare e ipotecario.

Per il FMI la strategia della BNS in materia di politica monetaria, basata sull’introduzione di interessi
negativi e interventi mirati sul mercato delle divise, ha dato buoni risultati. Il Fondo monetario ritiene
che entrambi gli strumenti siano efficaci per contrastare l’eccessivo apprezzamento del franco e la
conseguente deflazione. Tuttavia, raccomanda di verificare come migliorare ulteriormente
l’armonizzazione di questi strumenti.

In linea di principio, il Fondo monetario sostiene l’indirizzo della politica di bilancio della
Confederazione e in quest’ambito rileva che nei conti della Confederazione le uscite sono
regolarmente inferiori ai valori preventivati secondo il freno all’indebitamento. Il FMI valuta se le
uscite che non hanno raggiunto i valori di preventivo possono essere recuperate l’anno successivo. Le
eccedenze finanziarie a livello federale contribuiscono a ridurre il debito pubblico in Svizzera.

Il FMI ha apprezzato l’entrata in vigore di alcune riforme volte a rafforzare la stabilità del settore
finanziario, in particolare sul fronte della dotazione di fondi propri delle banche, dei progetti di
regolamentazione e della vigilanza sui mercati finanziari. Il Fondo monetario ritiene che i rischi legati
al settore finanziario, indotti dalla situazione di bassi tassi d’interesse, debbano essere monitorati e
possibilmente ridotti. Il Fondo monetario raccomanda in particolare di continuare a monitorare
attentamente l’evoluzione e la concentrazione dei crediti degli istituti finanziari che operano sul
mercato ipotecario e nel settore immobiliare, nonostante il leggero raffreddamento congiunturale.

Infine, il FMI sostiene importanti progetti di riforma che la Svizzera sta svolgendo e considera
l’approvazione della riforma della previdenza per la vecchiaia uno strumento necessario per garantire
la sostenibilità del sistema previdenziale. Anche la Riforma III dell’imposizione delle imprese darebbe

risultati positivi nonostante l’atteso calo delle entrate, poiché verrebbero stabilite chiare condizioni
fiscali prevedibili per tutte le imprese in Svizzera, garantendo nel contempo la competitività
internazionale.

La delegazione del FMI ha eseguito la valutazione annuale della Svizzera a Berna e Zurigo tra il 15 e il
26 settembre. La regolare valutazione della situazione economica e finanziaria dei suoi Stati membri
nel quadro della cosiddetta «consultazione ai sensi dell’articolo IV» costituisce un elemento centrale
dell’attività di vigilanza del FMI sulla politica economica.

Indirizzo cui rivolgere domande

Anne Césard, Comunicazione, Segreteria di Stato per le questioni finanziarie internazionali SFI
Tel. +41 58 462 62 91 , anne.cesard@sif.admin.ch

Pubblicato da

Dipartimento federale delle finanze
https://www.efd.admin.ch/efd/it/home.html l

Switzerland: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2016 Article IV Mission

                                     September 26, 2016

 A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an
 official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are
 undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF's
 Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the
 IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff
 monitoring of economic developments.

 The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in
 this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the
 IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will
 prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF
 Executive Board for discussion and decision.

Introduction
The Swiss economy weathered relatively well the sharp appreciation that followed the
exit from the exchange rate floor. While GDP growth decelerated by half in 2015,
flexibility by firms and the labor market helped to cushion the effect on output, which grew
by a respectable 0.8 percent. The appreciation and fall in world oil prices lowered the Swiss-
franc price of imports, boosting the purchasing power of Swiss consumers. In contrast, prices
of domestic products, which more likely reflect Swiss cyclical conditions, declined only
modestly. The improved terms of trade helped to widen the current account surplus.

Economic performance continued to firm during the first half of 2016. Growth recovered
further, supported by both domestic and external demand. Deflation continued to unwind as
the effect of the early 2015 appreciation on price growth dissipated and the Swiss franc
remained broadly stable against the euro. With real activity gradually strengthening and
unemployment at low levels, the output gap continued to narrow.

Outlook and risks

Growth is expected to continue to recover this year and next, stabilizing at a moderate
1¾ percent over the medium term. GDP is expected to expand by 1.5 percent this year,
with inflation reaching around zero percent by year end. The output gap is forecast to close
gradually over time, returning inflation to the middle of the target band. However, inflation
will remain below levels in key trading partners, facilitating a steady reduction of the real

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exchange rate, which we consider moderately overvalued. Net exports are likely to make a
smaller contribution to growth than in the past owing to the weaker outlook for trade
partners’ demand, leading to some narrowing of the current account surplus.

Risks to the outlook, while two sided, are tilted to the downside:

      Improved effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies implemented by the
       major central banks should increase global demand and support Switzerland’s large
       export sector. However, this could be offset by a further decline in the trade content
       of global demand.

      A resurgence of global financial market volatility could trigger further capital
       inflows into Switzerland that would appreciate the already overvalued franc and
       weaken GDP growth. These effects could spill over to the real estate market where
       house prices and household debt are elevated and banks are heavily exposed to
       mortgage lending.

      Renewed concerns about the financial health of large foreign cross border banks
       could impact the large Swiss banks through counterparty risk and financial market
       contagion.

      There could be negative impacts on Swiss-EU economic relations in the event that
       no mutually acceptable solution can be found in ongoing discussions regarding
       immigration.

Monetary and exchange rate policy

The SNB’s two pronged policy approach has helped to reduce deflation pressures. This
approach operates mainly through the exchange rate channel, using negative interest rates
and foreign exchange intervention as key instruments. However, banks have so far shielded
retail depositors from negative interest rates, while transmitting them to large depositors.
Banks have also preserved their profits by passing along part of the cost to mortgage
borrowers. The shift to a negative nominal policy rate also partly compensated for the drop in
inflation, limiting the increase in the real policy rate. Foreign exchange intervention has been
used to react to large safe-haven inflow surges, as well as on a smaller scale in response to
incipient inflows. As a result, the franc has been broadly stable against the euro and did not
experience a sharp appreciation following the Brexit vote.

Some refinements could improve the assignment of policy tools and simplify
communications. Calibrating the negative interest rate differential so as to discourage
persistent inflows that can cause prolonged deflation and weaken activity is appropriate. On
the other hand, exchange rate purchases should be reserved mainly to respond to episodic
capital inflow surges to prevent sudden, large exchange rate appreciations. Some widening of

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the current effective interest rate differential—either by lowering the exemption threshold or
the marginal policy rate—could therefore be considered to reduce the frequency of small-
scale interventions. This would also slow the increase in the SNB’s already large balance
sheet, which continues to trend upward relative to GDP and is subject to valuation changes
that can affect public finances.

However, operational considerations could at some point constrain the room for
maneuver. Competition between banks and other lenders could over time bid down bank
lending rates, and eventually push a wider set of deposit rates into negative territory,
increasing incentives for cash hoarding. In addition, diversification of investments can reduce
but not eliminate valuation risks on the SNB’s balance sheet. Beyond monetary policy,
addressing the large gap between domestic saving-investment may be warranted.

Fiscal policy

Switzerland’s “debt brake” rule, which mandates the federal budget to maintain a
balanced structural position, has delivered a sizable reduction in public debt. Under the
rule, general government debt as a share of GDP has remained on a declining path.
Automatic stabilizers operating through taxes and unemployment benefits also help to
dampen the business cycle. In addition, the rule has built-in flexibility to allow extraordinary
spending under the “exceptional financial circumstances” clause, which will be utilized again
for migration-related spending in 2017.

Despite a goal of structural balance, some aspects of the rule could lead to some
underspending. This tendency could place additional pressure on monetary policy during
periods of below trend growth. With some two thirds of the budget pre-committed as
transfers to other levels of government, spending compression is focused on the remaining
relatively narrow set of categories, including education. Allowing underspent amounts to be
used the following year would alleviate this issue.

In the event of a severe recession discretionary fiscal expansion would be an important
instrument. With moderate public debt, negative borrowing costs, and broadly balanced
budgets, Switzerland has ample fiscal space to respond to a prolonged recession with
discretionary fiscal stimulus in order to support growth and inflation. This could also avoid
overburdening monetary policy.

Pension reform will help address longer-term fiscal challenges. Population aging is
projected to substantially increase fiscal spending on pensions and healthcare over the longer
run. The authorities are proactively considering measures to generate resources to cover
future age-related costs, including gradually raising retirement ages and VAT rates. Timely
implementation of these proposals will help ensure the sustainability of the social safety net.

4

Financial stability issues

Sustained low interest rates could raise financial stability risks. Low rates and flattened
yield curves are apparent in many countries, reflecting structural trends and other factors.
They are also evident in Switzerland, where yields on sovereign bonds across all maturities
are negative, consistent with high household and corporate savings and a preference for
domestic assets. Maturity transformation as a business model is coming under pressure and
nominal rigidities, such as minimum guaranteed returns and scope to shift into cash,
constrain flexibility and could encourage search for yield. The authorities should therefore
guard against any possible build-up of systemic risk that could arise in these circumstances.

Elevated household debt and banks’ concentrated exposure to mortgages could be key
amplifiers in the event of macroeconomic shocks. House prices have recently stabilized
and mortgage lending has eased, reflecting the series of macroprudential measures introduced
during 2012-14 as well as some slowdown in population growth. Nonetheless, the level of
house prices relative to income has grown significantly since the great recession and debt per
borrower is high given the relatively low level of home ownership. In addition, more than 80
percent of banks’ domestic loans are mortgages, while insurance companies and pension
funds have increased their exposure to real estate. The high level of household debt could
increase the severity and duration of shocks to the real economy and financial sector,
especially if unemployment were to increase sharply.

New property-related macroprudential measures should be readied in case risks re-
emerge and supervisory arrangements should be further strengthened in line with the
2014 FSAP. This would allow a prompt response, including in the build-to-rent segment
where higher risk weights and/or faster amortization schedules relative to owner-occupied
properties would be appropriate. Greater recourse to legally-binding regulation could ensure
timely adjustments as well as uniform standards for all mortgage providers. Refining
supervisory arrangements for external audits of banks—as recommended in the 2014
FSAP—are also warranted. The stepped up frequency of on-site inspections is welcome. In
view of the low interest rate environment, a lower guaranteed minimum return on pension
funds and collective life insurance products is warranted, and consideration could be given to
specifying the return in real, rather than in nominal, terms.

The new Swiss regulations on the systemically-important banks (SIBs) appropriately
reflect the systemic risk characteristics of these banks. In particular, given the large size
of the two systemically important global banks, relative to the Swiss economy and potential
role in global risk propagation, the requirements introduced in July 2016 on leverage ratios
and too-big-to-fail regulations are appropriately more stringent than international minimum
standards. This will help safeguard the Swiss economy from inward spillovers. Attention

5

should also be given to risk weights used in internal ratings-based models and greater
disclosure of weights as part of the forthcoming revision to Basel requirements could help to
strengthen credibility.

Structural issues

Continued structural reform is needed to raise productivity and ensure long-run
sustainable growth. Preserving continued close economic ties with the EU by reaching
pragmatic solutions is essential given sizable trade and other economic linkages. Immigration
has brought significant benefits for growth and fiscal sustainability by helping to offset the
decrease in the Swiss working-age population. Harmonizing the taxation of domestic and
foreign firms under the corporate tax reform III by reducing the upper rate will reduce
disincentives that may have discouraged smaller firms from investing and growing their
business. A government scheme to use fully-rebated taxes to significantly cut carbon dioxide
emissions is innovative and could be a model for other countries. Reforms to facilitate full-
time female labor force participation, such as lowering the marginal tax rate on second
incomes, and enhancing education outcomes by increasing equality of access could also
boost potential growth over the medium term.

Switzerland continues to make progress with implementing international standards on
corporate taxation, AML/CFT and automatic exchange of tax information. These efforts
to increase transparency in the financial sector help to level the playing field across
participating countries while also protecting the integrity of Switzerland as an international
financial center. Corporate Tax Reform III will help realign the corporate tax code with
ongoing international initiatives to counter base erosion and profit shifting while preserving
competitiveness of its corporate tax regime.

We would like to thank the Swiss authorities and our private sector counterparts for their
cooperation and hospitality.